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Florida State Seminoles v SMU Mustangs

2026-09-07 23:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida State Seminoles (Local)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd
EV -0.211%
Edge -0.096%
Kelly -0.176%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.73%45.38%45.41%46.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.102.102.2049.50%47.68%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SMU Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 54.64%1.83fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.65%54.62%54.59%56.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.741.741.7859.88%57.55%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Florida State Seminoles (Local): 45.36%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 54.64%. For Florida State Seminoles (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.205. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.200, with an expected value of -0.211%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -0.211%E -0.096%K -0.176%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -6.56%E -3.84%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-13 19:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 16:24
GTbets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-13 17:19
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 16:25
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-15 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.48%E -1.15%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-16 12:00
Caesars🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.83%E -2.18%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-13 17:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 13:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 13:45
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 13:44
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -3.84%E -1.81%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.28%E -1.86%K -4.27%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-31 16:54
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.38%E -2.50%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-16 12:04
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.38%E -2.50%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 19:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.38%E -2.50%K -5.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 19:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.75%E -2.26%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.47%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:49
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -5.65%E -2.72%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -7.11%E -4.18%K -10.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 16:25
FanDuel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -6.56%E -3.19%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -2.74%E -1.54%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-13 17:24
MyBookie.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -6.56%E -3.19%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 16:23
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -6.56%E -3.19%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -6.56%E -3.19%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -6.56%E -3.19%K -6.19%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-07 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.02%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.38%E -2.50%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-03 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.02%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-07 13:45
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.02%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.92%E -2.83%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-07 13:44
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.02%E -3.42%K -6.68%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.47%E -3.16%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-13 17:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.38%E -4.15%K -8.21%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.11%E -4.18%K -10.16%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-13 17:24
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -8.38%E -4.15%K -8.21%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.75%E -5.24%K -13.06%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 18:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%8.0%2026-08-17 01:25

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