Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida State Seminoles v SMU Mustangs

2026-09-07 23:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida State Seminoles (Local)

Prediction 42.33%2.36fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.77%42.45%42.32%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3047.62%44.37%44.44%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SMU Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 57.67%1.73fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%57.55%57.68%58.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.661.651.7061.73%60.41%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Florida State Seminoles (Local): 42.33%; SMU Mustangs (Visit): 57.67%. For SMU Mustangs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.70, with an expected value of -1.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 13:33
GTbets🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-05 23:05
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-05 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 21:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-03 21:15
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Everygame🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-04 14:18
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.63%E -1.14%K -2.02%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -3.05%E -1.33%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -4.27%E -2.58%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:20
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:20
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.48%E -1.53%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-31 17:20
Caesars🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.39%EV -3.90%E -1.72%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.61%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:14
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -2.54%E -1.51%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-05 23:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:15
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 16:40
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 15:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:40
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:39
Fliff🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:29
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:34
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -5.17%E -2.31%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 17:40
MyBookie.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -5.59%E -2.51%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -4.27%E -2.58%K -6.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-05 23:04
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -6.02%E -2.71%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 00:05
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -6.02%E -2.71%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 03:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.86%E -3.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 15:35
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.86%E -3.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.70%E -2.21%K -5.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 15:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.86%E -3.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 03:15
Dabble (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -6.86%E -3.12%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -5.43%E -3.31%K -8.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-04 13:35
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -7.71%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-05 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -11.10%E -5.28%K -10.09%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -1.97%E -1.16%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 01:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-09-06 03:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%0.9%2026-09-05 23:05
ProphetX2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-09-06 04:00
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.50%2.3%2026-09-05 23:35