Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida State Seminoles v New Mexico State Aggies

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 23:00 UTC

Final: Florida State Seminoles 34–17 New Mexico State Aggies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Florida State Seminoles (Local)

Prediction 95.46%1.05fair odd

EV -3.58%

Edge -3.55%

Kelly -358.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.31%95.21%95.79%97.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.14%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Mexico State Aggies (Visit)

Prediction 4.54%22.04fair odd

EV +54.24%

Edge +1.60%

Kelly +1.64%

Growth +0.891%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.86%4.79%4.21%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0021.0719.0034.008.33%4.75%5.26%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Florida State Seminoles (Local): 95.46%; New Mexico State Aggies (Visit): 4.54%. For New Mexico State Aggies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.04. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +54.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -4.54%E -4.54%K +0.000%G +0.000%	34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +54.24%E +1.60%K +1.64%G +0.891%	2.9%	2026-08-29 07:50
BetMGM🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +40.63%E +1.31%K +1.35%G +0.550%	2.2%	2026-08-29 22:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +40.63%E +1.31%K +1.35%G +0.550%	2.2%	2026-08-29 22:54
Neds🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +40.63%E +1.31%K +1.35%G +0.550%	2.2%	2026-08-29 22:55
Fanatics🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +31.56%E +1.09%K +1.13%G +0.356%	2.5%	2026-08-29 21:49
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +17.95%E +0.690%K +0.718%G +0.129%	2.9%	2026-08-29 13:40
theScore Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +17.95%E +0.690%K +0.718%G +0.129%	2.9%	2026-08-29 19:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.88%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	23.50I 4.26%NM 4.12%EV +6.61%E +0.281%K +0.294%G +0.019%	3.3%	2026-08-29 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +4.34%E +0.189%K +0.197%G +0.009%	3.4%	2026-08-17 21:56
DraftKings🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +4.34%E +0.189%K +0.197%G +0.009%	3.4%	2026-08-29 22:08
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -13.81%E -0.727%K -0.767%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-29 18:09
Caesars🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -13.81%E -0.727%K -0.767%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-29 21:18
GTbets🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -13.81%E -0.727%K -0.767%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-24 06:08
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.47%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	17.25I 5.80%NM 5.53%EV -21.75%E -1.26%K -1.34%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-26 23:10
Coolbet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -25.15%E -1.52%K -1.62%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-29 06:10
Bet Right🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -27.42%E -1.71%K -1.83%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-22 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -35.36%E -2.48%K -2.67%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-08 10:40
Betsson🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -36.49%E -2.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-29 20:04
NordicBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -36.49%E -2.61%K -2.81%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-08-29 20:04
LeoVegas🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -3.58%E -3.55%K -358.18%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -41.03%E -3.16%K -3.42%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-08-26 23:04
Bet Victor🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -4.54%E -4.54%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -45.56%E -3.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-05 21:40
betano_uk🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -4.54%E -4.54%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -45.56%E -3.80%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-08-05 21:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
ProphetX◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.39%	38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%	0.7%	2026-08-29 22:55
Novig◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 97.32%	37.04I 2.70%NM 2.68%	0.7%	2026-08-29 22:53
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29%	1.4%	2026-08-29 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29%	1.4%	2026-08-29 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.02I 98.04%NM 96.71%	30.00I 3.33%NM 3.29%	1.4%	2026-08-29 22:55
Matchbook◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%	21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%	3.8%	2026-08-29 19:05