Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bulls v Albany

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 01:44 UTC

Final: Buffalo Bulls 21–17 Albany

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bulls (Local)

Prediction 87.73%1.14fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -23.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.64%87.66%87.54%89.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.091.091.1194.34%92.08%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Albany (Visit)

Prediction 12.27%8.15fair odd
EV +10.42%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.136%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%12.34%12.46%14.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.557.509.0015.38%13.24%13.33%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Bulls (Local): 87.73%; Albany (Visit): 12.27%. For Albany (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.15. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -6.13%E -5.73%K -87.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +10.42%E +1.16%K +1.30%G +0.136%4.6%2026-09-03 16:30
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.63%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV +4.29%E +0.505%K +0.572%G +0.025%3.5%2026-09-03 23:25
theScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.13%E -5.73%K -87.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +4.29%E +0.505%K +0.572%G +0.025%5.2%2026-09-03 23:25
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -5.25%E -4.86%K -65.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -4.91%E -0.634%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 01:32
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -5.25%E -4.86%K -65.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -4.91%E -0.634%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 17:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.77%EV -5.25%E -4.86%K -65.63%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.23%EV -4.91%E -0.634%K -0.728%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 17:45
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.18%EV -2.62%E -2.36%K -23.81%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.82%EV -7.37%E -0.976%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-03 16:54
DraftKings🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -3.50%E -3.18%K -34.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -7.98%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-03 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -7.98%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -7.01%E -6.61%K -116.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -7.98%E -1.06%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 16:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -3.50%E -3.18%K -34.96%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV -11.05%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 01:19
Betway🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -14.12%E -2.02%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 00:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -17.18%E -2.55%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 01:18
Bet Victor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -20.25%E -3.12%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 01:17
betano_uk🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -4.37%E -4.01%K -48.59%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -20.25%E -3.12%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 01:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%7.6%2026-09-04 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%7.6%2026-09-04 01:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%7.6%2026-09-04 01:40