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Bowling Green Falcons v Tarleton State Texans

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:00 UTC

Final: Bowling Green Falcons 13–20 Tarleton State Texans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bowling Green Falcons (Local)

Prediction 53.88%1.86fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.25%53.82%53.88%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.761.761.8058.82%56.89%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 46.12%2.17fair odd
EV -0.844%
Edge -0.393%
Kelly -0.734%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%46.18%46.12%47.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.052.052.1550.76%48.75%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bowling Green Falcons (Local): 53.88%; Tarleton State Texans (Visit): 46.12%. For Tarleton State Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.844%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.01%E -1.67%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.46%E -2.66%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 12:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -3.01%E -1.67%K -3.77%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -9.15%E -4.64%K -9.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:30
FanDuel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -5.46%E -2.66%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 23:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:30
Bally Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:30
betPARX🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.55%E -1.98%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.63%E -2.62%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.15%E -1.50%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 19:10
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.63%E -2.62%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.15%E -1.50%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 10:54
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.63%E -2.62%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.15%E -1.50%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 19:09
Caesars🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.63%E -2.62%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.99%E -2.42%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 19:02
ReBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.17%E -2.94%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -4.53%E -2.19%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.17%E -2.94%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44%EV -5.17%E -2.94%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56%EV -6.84%E -3.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:29
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.71%E -3.26%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.15%E -1.50%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-03 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.71%E -3.26%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.07%E -1.96%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-03 19:10
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -0.844%E -0.393%K -0.734%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-01 03:00
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -1.31%E -0.610%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 02:59
Fliff🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.46%E -2.66%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 12:09
Betsson🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.92%E -2.90%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 00:15
NordicBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.97%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.03%EV -5.92%E -2.90%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 04:24
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -6.25%E -3.59%K -8.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -7.76%E -3.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-03 23:20
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.79%E -3.92%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.76%E -3.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:33
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.79%E -3.92%K -9.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.76%E -3.88%K -7.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:33
MyBookie.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.32%E -4.26%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -4.07%E -1.96%K -3.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 14:54
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -7.32%E -4.26%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.46%E -2.66%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 19:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -8.40%E -4.94%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -3.15%E -1.50%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 21:30
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.40%E -4.94%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.46%E -2.66%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34%1.6%2026-09-04 10:55
ProphetX◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20%1.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-01 21:00