The School of Odds

Bowling Green Falcons v Tarleton State Texans

2026-09-05 16:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Bowling Green Falcons (Local)

Prediction 51.18%1.95fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -4.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%51.18%51.17%51.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.801.841.841.8755.56%54.25%54.35%53.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 48.82%2.05fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.68%48.82%48.83%48.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.881.931.941.9653.19%51.77%51.68%51.02%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -4.29%E -2.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -4.32%E -2.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-27 00:25
Coolbet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.29%E -2.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 06:04
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.83%E -3.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.29%E -2.73%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-27 04:15
MyBookie.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.83%E -3.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -5.78%E -3.00%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 04:14
Betr (AU)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -5.83%E -3.17%K -6.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -5.78%E -3.00%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 06:05
LeoVegas1.80I 55.56%NM 51.09%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -8.22%E -4.37%K -9.34%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-27 04:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.