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Boise State Broncos v Utah State Aggies
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Boise State Broncos (Local)
Prediction 89.31%1.12fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -29.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.74%89.23%89.29%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.071.0997.09%94.06%93.46%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Utah State Aggies (Visit)
Prediction 10.69%9.36fair odd
EV +17.56%
Edge +1.60%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.309%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.71%10.77%10.71%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.159.2511.0014.29%10.93%10.81%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boise State Broncos (Local): 89.31%; Utah State Aggies (Visit): 10.69%. For Utah State Aggies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.36. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.56%.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +17.56%E +1.60%K +1.76%G +0.309% | 4.3% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 4.8% | 2026-10-03 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -7.12%E -6.84%K -177.88%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -7.12%E -6.84%K -177.88%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -7.12%E -6.84%K -177.88%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 5.7% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -8.01%E -7.78%K -266.94%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -8.01%E -7.78%K -266.94%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV +12.22%E +1.16%K +1.29%G +0.157% | 6.6% | 2026-10-03 21:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +6.88%E +0.688%K +0.764%G +0.053% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.33%EV -5.33%E -5.03%K -88.82%G +0.000% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 9.67%EV +5.81%E +0.587%K +0.653%G +0.038% | 4.4% | 2026-10-03 15:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.37%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 9.85I 10.15%NM 9.63%EV +5.27%E +0.535%K +0.596%G +0.031% | 5.4% | 2026-10-03 23:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.02%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.65I 10.36%NM 9.98%EV +3.14%E +0.325%K +0.363%G +0.011% | 3.8% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +1.53%E +0.161%K +0.180%G +0.003% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 15:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +1.53%E +0.161%K +0.180%G +0.003% | 4.0% | 2026-09-30 21:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV +1.53%E +0.161%K +0.180%G +0.003% | 4.0% | 2026-10-03 19:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.83%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.45I 10.58%NM 10.17%EV +0.999%E +0.106%K +0.118%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-10-02 15:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV +0.037%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 22:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.74%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 9.36I 10.68%NM 10.26%EV +0.037%E +0.004%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-01 22:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -5.33%E -5.03%K -88.82%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -1.14%E -0.123%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -5.33%E -5.03%K -88.82%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -1.14%E -0.123%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -5.33%E -5.03%K -88.82%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -1.14%E -0.123%K -0.138%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-02 20:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -3.81%E -0.423%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.33%E -5.03%K -88.82%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -3.81%E -0.423%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 06:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.12%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 8.85I 11.30%NM 10.88%EV -5.41%E -0.612%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-03 23:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -6.48%E -0.741%K -0.836%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-03 16:53 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -7.02%E -0.807%K -0.911%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-30 23:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.63%EV -2.65%E -2.43%K -29.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.37%EV -9.15%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-03 21:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -9.15%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -9.15%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.22%E -5.93%K -124.44%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -9.15%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.76%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 8.45I 11.83%NM 11.24%EV -9.69%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-03 23:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.42%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -11.83%E -1.43%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 22:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -14.50%E -1.81%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 23:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.07%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 11.93%EV -15.57%E -1.97%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-03 21:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.70%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.30%EV -17.70%E -2.30%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-02 23:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -2.65%E -2.43%K -29.44%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -19.84%E -2.65%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-03 10:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -19.84%E -2.65%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 13:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.54%E -3.28%K -44.28%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -19.84%E -2.65%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-03 10:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -25.19%E -3.60%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 21:11 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -4.44%E -4.15%K -63.37%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -25.19%E -3.60%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-02 22:37 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.43% | 10.40I 9.62%NM 9.57% | 0.5% | 2026-10-03 22:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 22:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-10-03 22:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-10-03 23:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-10-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-10-03 23:10 |