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Ball State Cardinals v Stony Brook Seawolves
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ball State Cardinals (Local)
Prediction 81.92%1.22fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -18.51%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.90%82.20%82.03%84.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.161.1890.09%86.74%86.21%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stony Brook Seawolves (Visit)
Prediction 18.08%5.53fair odd
EV +12.98%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.47%
Growth +0.321%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.08%17.80%17.97%20.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.655.485.336.2521.51%18.25%18.78%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ball State Cardinals (Local): 81.92%; Stony Brook Seawolves (Visit): 18.08%. For Stony Brook Seawolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -7.43%E -6.57%K -57.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -7.43%E -6.57%K -57.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -7.43%E -6.57%K -57.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -7.43%E -6.57%K -57.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -8.25%E -7.36%K -68.72%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -8.25%E -7.36%K -68.72%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 5.3% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -9.07%E -8.17%K -82.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -9.07%E -8.17%K -82.41%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +12.98%E +2.08%K +2.47%G +0.321% | 6.1% | 2026-09-12 14:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -9.07%E -8.17%K -82.41%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +8.46%E +1.41%K +1.69%G +0.143% | 6.8% | 2026-09-12 17:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -5.79%E -5.03%K -38.59%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV +0.328%E +0.059%K +0.072%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -0.576%E -0.105%K -0.128%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-12 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.38%E -0.441%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 17:31 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.38%E -0.441%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-12 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV -2.38%E -0.441%K -0.542%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 17:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -3.33%E -2.82%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV -5.10%E -0.971%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-12 16:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.10%E -0.971%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.10%E -0.971%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-12 16:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.79%E -5.03%K -38.59%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.10%E -0.971%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 16:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -7.81%E -1.53%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV -7.81%E -1.53%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-12 17:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.33%E -2.82%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.61%E -1.92%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-12 16:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.61%E -1.92%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.06%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.61%E -1.92%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-12 17:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.37%EV -11.96%E -2.46%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 17:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.37%EV -11.96%E -2.46%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-12 17:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -3.33%E -2.82%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -13.23%E -2.76%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -3.33%E -2.82%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -13.23%E -2.76%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-12 17:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.41%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -15.94%E -3.43%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-12 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.73% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 17.27% | 0.7% | 2026-09-12 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 17:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 17:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-09-12 17:05 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42% | 4.6% | 2026-09-12 17:30 |