Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas State Red Wolves v West Georgia Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 23:02 UTC

Final: Arkansas State Red Wolves 52–7 West Georgia Wolves

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas State Red Wolves (Local)

Prediction 95.72%1.04fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -332.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%95.29%95.79%97.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.28%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Georgia Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 4.28%23.36fair odd
EV +54.11%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.55%
Growth +0.837%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.70%4.71%4.21%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0021.0718.5036.009.09%4.75%5.41%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas State Red Wolves (Local): 95.72%; West Georgia Wolves (Visit): 4.28%. For West Georgia Wolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 23.36. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 36.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +54.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.30%EV -4.28%E -4.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.70%EV +54.11%E +1.50%K +1.55%G +0.837%2.8%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +32.71%E +1.06%K +1.09%G +0.357%2.2%2026-09-12 14:20
GTbets🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.88%EV -4.28%E -4.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.13%EV +32.71%E +1.06%K +1.09%G +0.357%3.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Fanatics🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +24.15%E +0.833%K +0.862%G +0.208%2.5%2026-09-12 22:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -18.66%E -0.982%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-12 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -20.80%E -1.12%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-12 22:30
Betsson🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 94.44%EV -4.28%E -4.28%K +0.000%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.56%EV -27.22%E -1.60%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 22:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -39.00%E -2.74%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -40.07%E -2.86%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 22:30
betano_uk🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -52.91%E -4.81%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 22:29
Bet Victor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -3.32%E -3.29%K -332.38%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -52.91%E -4.81%K -5.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 22:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.02I 98.04%NM 98.18%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.82%-0.1%2026-09-12 22:30
ProphetX◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.97%33.00I 3.03%NM 3.03%0.1%2026-09-12 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%2.5%2026-09-12 21:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%2.5%2026-09-12 21:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%2.5%2026-09-12 21:10