Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks v North Alabama Lions

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 20:21 UTC

Final: Arkansas Razorbacks 31–14 North Alabama Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

98%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arkansas Razorbacks (Local)

Prediction 97.99%1.02fair odd

EV -1.03%

Edge -1.02%

Kelly -102.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.31%97.99%97.99%98.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.001.001.01100.00%99.50%99.50%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

North Alabama Lions (Visit)

Prediction 2.01%49.79fair odd

EV +22.52%

Edge +0.369%

Kelly +0.375%

Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 61.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

1.61%2.01%2.01%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0031.6326.7561.008.33%3.16%3.74%1.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arkansas Razorbacks (Local): 97.99%; North Alabama Lions (Visit): 2.01%. For North Alabama Lions (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 49.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 61.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.39%EV -2.01%E -2.01%K +0.000%G +0.000%	61.00I 1.64%NM 1.61%EV +22.52%E +0.369%K +0.375%G +0.085%	1.6%	2026-08-28 18:39
Fanatics🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.60%EV -1.03%E -1.02%K -102.86%G +0.000%	41.00I 2.44%NM 2.40%EV -17.65%E -0.430%K -0.441%G +0.000%	1.4%	2026-08-31 08:18
LeoVegas🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -1.03%E -1.02%K -102.86%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -74.89%E -5.99%K -6.51%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-03 06:54
betano_uk🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -2.01%E -2.01%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -75.90%E -6.32%K -6.90%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-04 01:23

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%	1.0%	2026-09-04 00:10