Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats v Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 01:30 UTC

Final: Arizona Wildcats 35–7 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 95.16%1.05fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -146.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%95.18%95.16%97.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0299.01%98.93%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit)

Prediction 4.84%20.66fair odd
EV +64.55%
Edge +1.90%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +1.26%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.88%4.82%4.84%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0020.8118.7534.009.09%4.80%5.33%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Wildcats (Local): 95.16%; Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit): 4.84%. For Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.66. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +64.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +64.55%E +1.90%K +1.96%G +1.26%2.0%2026-09-06 01:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +64.55%E +1.90%K +1.96%G +1.26%2.0%2026-09-06 01:20
BetMGM🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +64.55%E +1.90%K +1.96%G +1.26%2.0%2026-09-06 01:20
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -2.94%E -2.88%K -146.83%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +1.64%E +0.078%K +0.082%G +0.001%2.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -8.04%E -0.423%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-05 23:05
GTbets🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -8.04%E -0.423%K -0.447%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-03 10:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -10.46%E -0.566%K -0.598%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-05 23:04
Bovada🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -17.72%E -1.04%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-05 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -31.03%E -2.18%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 05:44
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -32.24%E -2.30%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -32.24%E -2.30%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-05 23:10
betano_uk🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -3.89%E -3.85%K -388.82%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -46.76%E -4.25%K -4.68%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-05 23:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.02I 98.04%NM 98.00%50.00I 2.00%NM 2.00%0.0%2026-09-05 23:50
Novig1.02I 98.04%NM 97.61%41.67I 2.40%NM 2.39%0.4%2026-09-06 01:17
ProphetX1.02I 98.04%NM 97.39%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%0.7%2026-09-06 01:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-06 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-09-06 01:05