Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats v Cincinnati Bearcats

Kickoff: 2026-10-04 03:08 UTC

Final: Arizona Wildcats 34–7 Cincinnati Bearcats

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 69.84%1.43fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -5.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.22%69.53%69.84%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4075.76%73.53%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit)

Prediction 30.16%3.32fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.610%
Kelly -0.881%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.04%30.47%30.16%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.143.173.2535.09%31.80%31.50%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona Wildcats (Local): 69.84%; Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit): 30.16%. For Cincinnati Bearcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -2.22%E -1.59%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 03:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -2.92%E -2.10%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 02:50
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.22%EV -2.92%E -2.10%K -7.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -14.05%E -4.93%K -7.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 03:05
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.13%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.87%EV -2.28%E -0.705%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-04 02:59
Everygame🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-04 02:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 00:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -3.79%E -1.19%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 00:15
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 03:05
BetAnything🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 00:15
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-04 02:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 02:45
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 02:45
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.32%E -3.15%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-04 03:01
GTbets🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.32%E -3.15%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 03:01
Bovada🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.32%E -3.15%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 02:55
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.32%E -3.15%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 02:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.32%E -3.15%K -11.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 02:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 03:04
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 03:00
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 02:45
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 02:35
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:01
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:00
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 02:44
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -4.70%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 00:29
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 03:05
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 03:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 02:50
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.02%E -3.69%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -12.54%E -4.32%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-04 03:05
Bally Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:05
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-04 03:05
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-04 02:00
LeoVegas🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 02:50
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.73%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.27%EV -6.20%E -1.99%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 03:05
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.25%EV -5.72%E -4.23%K -16.33%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -8.32%E -2.74%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 03:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.41%E -4.79%K -18.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 03:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.41%E -4.79%K -18.86%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 03:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -6.41%E -4.79%K -18.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -8.01%E -2.63%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-04 03:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.11%E -5.35%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 03:05
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.11%E -5.35%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 03:05
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -7.11%E -5.35%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -5.30%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 03:04
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.11%E -5.35%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 02:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.11%E -5.35%K -21.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-04 02:45
Fliff🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -7.81%E -5.92%K -24.41%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.00%E -1.59%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-04 03:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.43%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.57%0.0%2026-10-04 02:59
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-04 03:05
Novig◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-10-04 03:05
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-10-04 02:55
ProphetX◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.36%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.64%2.2%2026-10-04 03:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%2.8%2026-10-04 03:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%3.3%2026-10-04 03:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%9.7%2026-10-04 03:05