Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona State Sun Devils v Morgan State Bears

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 02:00 UTC

Final: Arizona State Sun Devils 70–7 Morgan State Bears

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arizona State Sun Devils (Local)

Prediction 95.19%1.05fair odd

EV -4.81%

Edge -4.81%

Kelly +0.000%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

92.31%95.19%95.19%99.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.001.001.00100.00%100.00%100.00%100.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Morgan State Bears (Visit)

Prediction 4.81%20.80fair odd

EV +505.77%

Edge +4.01%

Kelly +4.05%

Growth +20.46%

assuming max odds 126.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

0.79%4.81%4.81%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0050.2531.50126.008.33%1.99%3.17%0.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arizona State Sun Devils (Local): 95.19%; Morgan State Bears (Visit): 4.81%. For Morgan State Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 20.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 126.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +505.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
SportsBet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 99.21%EV -4.81%E -4.81%K +0.000%G +0.000%	126.00I 0.79%NM 0.79%EV +505.77%E +4.01%K +4.05%G +20.46%	0.8%	2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -4.81%E -4.81%K +0.000%G +0.000%	51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +145.19%E +2.85%K +2.90%G +4.22%	2.0%	2026-09-05 23:05
betano_uk🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -4.81%E -4.81%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -42.31%E -3.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-04 06:35
Bet Victor🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 92.31%EV -4.81%E -4.81%K +0.000%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -42.31%E -3.53%K -3.85%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-04 06:37

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.54%	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.46%	1.5%	2026-09-06 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.54%	40.00I 2.50%NM 2.46%	1.5%	2026-09-06 01:55