Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama Crimson Tide v Florida State Seminoles

2026-09-19 19:30 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alabama Crimson Tide (Local)

Prediction 82.12%1.22fair odd

EV -3.92%

Edge -3.35%

Kelly -23.07%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.43%82.34%82.12%84.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.141.131.1790.09%87.82%88.11%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida State Seminoles (Visit)

Prediction 17.88%5.59fair odd

EV +7.29%

Edge +1.22%

Kelly +1.46%

Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.85%17.66%17.88%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.005.475.356.0020.00%18.29%18.69%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alabama Crimson Tide (Local): 82.12%; Florida State Seminoles (Visit): 17.88%. For Florida State Seminoles (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.00, producing a positive expected value of +7.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -7.21%E -6.38%K -55.44%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +7.29%E +1.22%K +1.46%G +0.106%	5.2%	2026-07-31 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -7.21%E -6.38%K -55.44%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV +3.72%E +0.641%K +0.775%G +0.029%	5.7%	2026-07-26 15:10
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -8.03%E -7.17%K -66.90%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV +3.72%E +0.641%K +0.775%G +0.029%	6.5%	2026-07-26 15:09
DraftKings🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -3.92%E -3.35%K -23.07%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -3.43%E -0.636%K -0.781%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-11 15:59
Coolbet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.74%E -4.09%K -29.65%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -5.22%E -0.985%K -1.21%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-11 15:59
Betr (AU)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.56%E -4.84%K -37.10%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.12%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-11 15:59
LeoVegas🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -8.85%E -7.97%K -80.45%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -7.01%E -1.35%K -1.67%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-07-26 15:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.39%E -5.60%K -45.61%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -10.59%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-11 15:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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