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Alabama Crimson Tide v East Carolina Pirates
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alabama Crimson Tide (Local)
Prediction 94.76%1.06fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -3.28%
Kelly -167.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%94.57%94.77%96.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.011.011.0299.01%98.67%99.01%98.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
East Carolina Pirates (Visit)
Prediction 5.24%19.08fair odd
EV +36.28%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.527%
assuming max odds 26.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.74%5.43%5.23%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0017.6717.0026.009.09%5.66%5.88%3.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alabama Crimson Tide (Local): 94.76%; East Carolina Pirates (Visit): 5.24%. For East Carolina Pirates (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 19.08. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 26.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +36.28%.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +36.28%E +1.40%K +1.45%G +0.527% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 06:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +20.56%E +0.894%K +0.934%G +0.192% | 2.4% | 2026-08-31 20:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +20.56%E +0.894%K +0.934%G +0.192% | 2.4% | 2026-09-03 20:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +20.56%E +0.894%K +0.934%G +0.192% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +20.56%E +0.894%K +0.934%G +0.192% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 13:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 95.37%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.63%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 2.8% | 2026-09-04 08:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 20:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 13:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 13:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 13:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +10.07%E +0.480%K +0.504%G +0.051% | 3.8% | 2026-08-18 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +4.83%E +0.242%K +0.254%G +0.012% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 13:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +4.83%E +0.242%K +0.254%G +0.012% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 13:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +4.83%E +0.242%K +0.254%G +0.012% | 4.0% | 2026-08-18 13:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.19%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%EV +4.83%E +0.242%K +0.254%G +0.012% | 4.0% | 2026-08-27 12:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.49%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 17.50I 5.71%NM 5.51%EV -8.27%E -0.473%K -0.501%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV -10.89%E -0.641%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -10.89%E -0.641%K -0.681%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-31 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -13.51%E -0.819%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 16:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV -16.13%E -1.01%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-26 19:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -16.13%E -1.01%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -21.38%E -1.43%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -21.38%E -1.43%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-03 15:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -21.38%E -1.43%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:28 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV -24.00%E -1.65%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.43%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.57%EV -24.00%E -1.65%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -25.31%E -1.78%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-20 20:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -26.62%E -1.90%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-03 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -26.62%E -1.90%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-20 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -26.62%E -1.90%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 15:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -31.86%E -2.45%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 04:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -3.35%E -3.28%K -167.32%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -39.72%E -3.45%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-03 18:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -42.34%E -3.85%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 12:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -4.29%E -4.25%K -429.40%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -42.34%E -3.85%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 12:53 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.33% | 27.00I 3.70%NM 3.67% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.34% | 21.28I 4.70%NM 4.66% | 0.9% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.06% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.94% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36% | 3.6% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |