Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons v Duquesne Dukes

2026-09-05 17:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Air Force Falcons (Local)

Prediction 95.50%1.05fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -3.51%
Kelly -354.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.59%95.20%95.79%97.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.15%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Duquesne Dukes (Visit)

Prediction 4.50%22.24fair odd
EV +61.89%
Edge +1.72%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +1.09%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.70%4.80%4.21%8.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0019.5918.7536.009.09%5.10%5.33%2.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Air Force Falcons (Local): 95.50%; Duquesne Dukes (Visit): 4.50%. For Duquesne Dukes (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 22.24. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 36.00, producing a positive expected value of +61.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.30%EV -4.50%E -4.50%K +0.000%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.70%EV +61.89%E +1.72%K +1.77%G +1.09%2.8%2026-09-01 15:30
Fanatics🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +16.92%E +0.651%K +0.677%G +0.115%2.9%2026-09-03 20:50
FanDuel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +12.42%E +0.497%K +0.518%G +0.064%3.0%2026-09-01 15:30
DraftKings🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +3.43%E +0.149%K +0.156%G +0.005%3.4%2026-09-03 14:30
GTbets🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.79%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +3.43%E +0.149%K +0.156%G +0.005%3.4%2026-09-03 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -4.50%E -4.50%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV -5.56%E -0.265%K -0.278%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-01 16:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV -14.56%E -0.766%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-10 16:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -16.81%E -0.908%K -0.960%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-10 16:25
Caesars🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV -23.55%E -1.39%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 17:33
ReBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.23%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.77%EV -25.80%E -1.56%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 17:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.38%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.62%EV -35.92%E -2.52%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-29 05:44
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -41.54%E -3.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 06:59
Bet Victor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -50.53%E -4.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 01:20
betano_uk🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -3.54%E -3.51%K -354.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -50.53%E -4.59%K -5.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 01:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.03I 97.09%NM 96.91%32.26I 3.10%NM 3.09%0.2%2026-09-04 14:24
ProphetX1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-09-04 14:25
Kalshi1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96%1.1%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%4.3%2026-09-04 04:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%4.3%2026-09-04 04:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%4.3%2026-09-04 04:35