The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ottawa Redblacks v Toronto Argonauts

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 23:00 UTC

Final: Ottawa Redblacks 40–39 Toronto Argonauts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ottawa Redblacks (Local)

Prediction 19.18%5.21fair odd
EV +10.31%
Edge +1.79%
Kelly +2.17%
Growth +0.224%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.91%19.34%19.03%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.005.155.7523.81%19.98%19.42%17.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Argonauts (Visit)

Prediction 80.82%1.24fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -6.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.78%80.66%80.97%83.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.181.171.2286.21%84.99%85.47%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ottawa Redblacks (Local): 19.18%; Toronto Argonauts (Visit): 80.82%. For Ottawa Redblacks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.31%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.91%EV +10.31%E +1.79%K +2.17%G +0.224%1.17I 85.47%NM 83.09%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-16 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯5.64I 17.73%NM 17.06%EV +8.20%E +1.45%K +1.77%G +0.145%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.94%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 21:54
BetOnline.ag🎯5.64I 17.73%NM 17.06%EV +8.20%E +1.45%K +1.77%G +0.145%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.94%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 21:55
Everygame🎯5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV +6.47%E +1.17%K +1.42%G +0.092%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 22:10
BetAnything🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +5.51%E +1.00%K +1.23%G +0.068%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 22:00
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +5.51%E +1.00%K +1.23%G +0.068%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-15 16:19
DraftKings🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV +3.60%E +0.666%K +0.817%G +0.029%1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-16 22:30
Pinnacle🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.21%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.18I 84.75%NM 81.79%EV -4.64%E -3.93%K -25.76%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-16 22:59
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
BetRivers🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:35
Bally Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
betPARX🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +1.68%E +0.316%K +0.390%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:30
Caesars🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV +0.718%E +0.137%K +0.169%G +0.001%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-16 22:44
Neds🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -0.241%E -0.046%K -0.057%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -0.241%E -0.046%K -0.057%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-15 16:20
BetUS🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV -2.16%E -0.423%K -0.527%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -3.83%E -3.22%K -20.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-16 22:00
Bovada🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -2.16%E -0.423%K -0.527%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 22:19
Coolbet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.08%E -0.816%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -4.64%E -3.93%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-15 17:34
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -4.08%E -0.816%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-16 21:05
MyBookie.ag🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -7.91%E -1.65%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -3.83%E -3.22%K -20.16%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-16 21:40
FanDuel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -8.87%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.02%E -2.52%K -15.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 21:35
Unibet (UK)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -8.87%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -3.83%E -3.22%K -20.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 21:35
Dabble (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -8.87%E -1.87%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.64%E -3.93%K -25.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 21:54
Fanatics🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -11.75%E -2.55%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -2.21%E -1.83%K -10.54%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-16 22:00
picklebet_au🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -11.75%E -2.55%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.64%E -3.93%K -25.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 22:10
Betway🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -13.67%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -1.40%E -1.15%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 22:00
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.67%E -3.04%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.02%E -2.52%K -15.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 06:10
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -15.59%E -3.54%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.21%E -1.83%K -10.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 22:00
Betsson🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -16.55%E -3.80%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -3.02%E -2.52%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 22:00
LeoVegas🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -17.51%E -4.07%K -5.31%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -5.45%E -4.65%K -32.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -18.47%E -4.34%K -5.68%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -3.02%E -2.52%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 22:00
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -19.43%E -4.63%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -3.02%E -2.52%K -15.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 22:00
ReBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -19.43%E -4.63%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -6.25%E -5.39%K -39.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82%1.9%2026-10-16 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82%1.9%2026-10-16 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18%1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82%1.9%2026-10-16 22:35
ProphetX◎5.30I 18.87%NM 18.34%1.19I 84.03%NM 81.66%2.9%2026-10-16 22:50