Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats v Toronto Argonauts

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 20:00 UTC

Final: Hamilton Tiger-Cats 10–20 Toronto Argonauts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

62%

38%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Local)

Prediction 62.48%1.60fair odd

EV -3.16%

Edge -2.04%

Kelly -5.74%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.26%62.48%63.41%63.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.521.501.5566.67%65.93%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Argonauts (Visit)

Prediction 37.52%2.67fair odd

EV -0.946%

Edge -0.359%

Kelly -0.577%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.23%37.52%36.59%39.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.532.602.6442.55%39.53%38.46%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Local): 62.48%; Toronto Argonauts (Visit): 37.52%. For Toronto Argonauts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.64, with an expected value of -0.946%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.16%E -2.04%K -5.74%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.83%E -5.03%K -8.76%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-23 19:09
FanDuel🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -6.28%E -4.19%K -12.56%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -0.946%E -0.359%K -0.577%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-05-21 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.28%E -4.19%K -12.56%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.45%E -0.941%K -1.53%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-22 01:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.