The School of Odds
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Hamilton Tiger-Cats v Edmonton Elks

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 23:00 UTC

Final: Hamilton Tiger-Cats 12–27 Edmonton Elks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Local)

Prediction 32.10%3.12fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.46%32.05%32.13%34.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.662.922.953.0537.59%34.28%33.90%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Edmonton Elks (Visit)

Prediction 67.90%1.47fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -3.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.48%67.95%67.87%68.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4574.63%71.50%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hamilton Tiger-Cats (Local): 32.10%; Edmonton Elks (Visit): 67.90%. For Edmonton Elks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.45, with an expected value of -1.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -2.10%E -0.689%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-05 13:58
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.71%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.58%E -2.52%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-05 14:20
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.71%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 13:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.71%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 13:55
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.71%E -1.24%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 13:59
FanDuel🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -4.35%E -1.46%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV -4.26%E -3.02%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-05 12:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -5.31%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.26%E -3.02%K -10.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.31%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 13:00
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.31%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.94%E -3.53%K -12.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:05
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.62%E -4.04%K -14.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.92%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.30%E -4.56%K -16.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -11.73%E -4.27%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.54%E -1.06%K -3.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -11.73%E -4.27%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -6.30%E -4.56%K -16.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 13:00
ReBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 33.50%EV -14.62%E -5.50%K -8.81%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.50%EV -9.01%E -6.72%K -26.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-05 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.