L’École des cotes

Laura Siegemund v Karolina Pliskova

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-10 18:35 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Laura Siegemund (Local)

Prévision 39.49%2.53cote équitable
EV +26.38%
Avantage +8.24%
Kelly +11.99%
Croissance +3.16%

avec la cote maximale 3.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.67%39.92%38.62%47.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.952.362.403.2051.28%42.38%41.67%31.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Karolina Pliskova (Visiteur)

Prévision 60.51%1.65cote équitable
EV +13.15%
Avantage +7.03%
Kelly +15.11%
Croissance +1.99%

avec la cote maximale 1.87

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
52.12%60.08%61.38%70.33%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.351.581.541.8774.07%63.15%64.94%53.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +26.38%E +8.24%K +11.99%G +3.16%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -18.32%E -13.57%K -52.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +14.53%E +5.01%K +7.65%G +1.11%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -17.71%E -13.02%K -49.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 18:35
Coral2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV +14.53%E +5.01%K +7.65%G +1.11%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -17.71%E -13.02%K -49.20%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 18:35
Fliff2.70I 37.04%NM 33.99%EV +6.63%E +2.46%K +3.90%G +0.259%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -15.90%E -11.44%K -40.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 18:35
Unibet (NL)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:35
Casumo2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:35
Unibet (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:35
betPARX2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:34
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:34
Svenska Spel2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV +3.87%E +1.47%K +2.37%G +0.092%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-10 18:34
DraftKings2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV +3.47%E +1.33%K +2.14%G +0.074%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-10 18:34
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +3.47%E +1.33%K +2.14%G +0.074%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -12.87%E -8.94%K -29.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 18:35
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +0.708%E +0.277%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:34
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +0.708%E +0.277%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:35
Bally Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV +0.708%E +0.277%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 18:35
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV +0.708%E +0.277%K +0.456%G +0.003%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -12.27%E -8.46%K -27.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-10 18:35
BetMGM2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV +0.313%E +0.123%K +0.203%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Coolbet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -6.82%E -4.43%K -12.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:34
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -6.82%E -4.43%K -12.63%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-10 18:34
Tipico (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.24%E -6.16%K -18.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 18:34
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.24%E -6.16%K -18.48%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-10 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -12.87%E -8.94%K -29.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-10 18:35
Winamax (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.40%EV -1.27%E -0.507%K -0.845%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.60%EV -17.11%E -12.49%K -46.23%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-10 18:35
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -3.24%E -1.32%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.31%EV -14.08%E -9.92%K -33.52%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-10 18:34
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.79%E -2.39%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-10 18:34
NordicBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.21%E -4.01%K -11.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-10 18:34
PointsBet (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.42%E -4.85%K -14.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:34
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.42%E -4.85%K -14.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 18:34
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -9.84%E -6.61%K -20.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 18:34
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -10.45%E -7.06%K -21.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 18:31
888sport (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.42%E -4.85%K -14.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:34
Mr Green (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.42%E -4.85%K -14.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-10 18:34
TAB2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.19%E -3.06%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.21%E -4.01%K -11.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-10 18:35
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.19%E -3.06%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.24%E -6.16%K -18.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-10 18:34
Unibet2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -8.38%E -3.61%K -6.35%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -2.58%E -1.60%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-10 18:34
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.00%E -3.19%K -8.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 18:34
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.96%E -4.37%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.19%E -1.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:34
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.96%E -4.37%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.19%E -1.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:34
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -9.96%E -4.37%K -7.78%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -3.19%E -1.99%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-10 18:34
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.00%E -3.19%K -8.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-10 18:33
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -13.12%E -5.96%K -10.93%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -1.98%E -1.22%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-10 18:34
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +2.86%E +1.68%K +4.09%G +0.117%5.3%2026-05-10 18:29
Unibet (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV +2.86%E +1.68%K +4.09%G +0.117%5.3%2026-05-10 18:34
LowVig.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -16.27%E -7.68%K -14.53%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV +6.49%E +3.69%K +8.54%G +0.555%4.0%2026-05-10 18:24
BetOnline.ag2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -16.27%E -7.68%K -14.53%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV +6.49%E +3.69%K +8.54%G +0.555%4.0%2026-05-10 18:25
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -18.64%E -9.05%K -17.59%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV +6.49%E +3.69%K +8.54%G +0.555%5.4%2026-05-10 18:24
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70%EV -19.04%E -9.29%K -18.13%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30%EV +13.15%E +7.03%K +15.11%G +1.99%2.3%2026-05-10 18:25
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -19.04%E -9.29%K -18.13%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV +7.10%E +4.01%K +9.22%G +0.654%5.3%2026-05-10 18:23
SportsBet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -20.22%E -10.01%K -19.83%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +10.12%E +5.56%K +12.34%G +1.25%4.5%2026-05-10 18:25
ReBet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -21.01%E -10.51%K -21.01%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV +9.52%E +5.26%K +11.75%G +1.12%5.2%2026-05-10 18:18
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -21.01%E -10.51%K -21.01%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +8.91%E +4.95%K +11.14%G +0.993%5.6%2026-05-10 18:17
Betr (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -21.01%E -10.51%K -21.01%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV +7.70%E +4.33%K +9.87%G +0.761%6.2%2026-05-10 18:23
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -21.01%E -10.51%K -21.01%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV +7.10%E +4.01%K +9.22%G +0.654%6.5%2026-05-10 18:25
PlayUp1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -21.80%E -11.01%K -22.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV +8.91%E +4.95%K +11.14%G +0.993%6.1%2026-05-10 18:27
Ladbrokes (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -21.80%E -11.01%K -22.25%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV +7.10%E +4.01%K +9.22%G +0.654%7.0%2026-05-10 18:23
Neds1.98I 50.51%NM 47.20%EV -21.80%E -11.01%K -22.25%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV +7.10%E +4.01%K +9.22%G +0.654%7.0%2026-05-10 18:23
Unibet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -22.20%E -11.27%K -22.89%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV +9.52%E +5.26%K +11.75%G +1.12%6.0%2026-05-10 18:21
NetBet (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.47%EV -22.20%E -11.27%K -22.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.53%EV +7.70%E +4.33%K +9.87%G +0.761%6.9%2026-05-10 18:20
Everygame1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -22.99%E -11.79%K -24.20%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +5.89%E +3.36%K +7.85%G +0.462%8.4%2026-05-10 18:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74%0.1%2026-05-10 18:34
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 59.08%0.2%2026-05-10 18:34
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53%1.6%2026-05-10 18:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.58I 38.76%NM 37.98%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.02%2.1%2026-05-10 18:34
Matchbook3.00I 33.33%NM 32.58%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.42%2.3%2026-05-10 18:34
Novig2.51I 39.84%NM 37.56%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.44%6.1%2026-05-10 18:34