Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirra Andreeva v Leylah Fernandez

Inicio: 2026-08-07 18:30 UTC

Final: Mirra Andreeva 0–2 Leylah Fernandez

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

65 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Mirra Andreeva (Local)

Predicción 77.23%1.29momio equitativo
EV -1.14%
Ventaja -0.892%
Kelly -4.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.77%77.12%77.35%78.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.171.231.241.2885.47%81.16%80.65%78.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Leylah Fernandez (Visitante)

Predicción 22.77%4.39momio equitativo
EV +4.96%
Ventaja +1.08%
Kelly +1.37%
Crecimiento +0.068%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.01%22.88%22.65%26.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.604.074.004.6127.78%24.56%25.00%21.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Mirra Andreeva (Local): 77.23%; Leylah Fernandez (Visitante): 22.77%. Para Leylah Fernandez (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.39. 6 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.61, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.96%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.80%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 21.20%EV +4.96%E +1.08%K +1.37%G +0.068%2.3%2026-08-07 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%EV +0.176%E +0.040%K +0.052%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-07 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.176%E +0.040%K +0.052%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.176%E +0.040%K +0.052%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 16:55
FanDuel🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -6.55%E -5.41%K -31.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV +0.176%E +0.040%K +0.052%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.64%E -8.24%K -56.69%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV +0.176%E +0.040%K +0.052%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 17:00
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV -0.962%E -0.221%K -0.287%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-07 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -1.42%E -0.327%K -0.426%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 18:25
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -1.42%E -0.327%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -1.42%E -0.327%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 18:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -1.42%E -0.327%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -1.42%E -0.327%K -0.426%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 18:25
ReBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -2.10%E -0.489%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -2.10%E -0.489%K -0.637%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-07 16:55
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.10%E -0.489%K -0.637%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-07 18:25
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -3.24%E -0.762%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 17:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.24%E -0.762%K -0.997%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 15:40
BetUS🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.24%E -0.762%K -0.997%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 16:00
BetMGM🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.55%E -5.41%K -31.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -3.24%E -0.762%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 15:50
SportsBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -3.24%E -0.762%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 17:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 16:50
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 15:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 16:26
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.32%E -6.10%K -36.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 15:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.92%EV -8.09%E -6.80%K -42.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -4.38%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 18:25
GTbets🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.18%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.82%EV -5.29%E -1.27%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -5.52%E -1.33%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 18:18
Fanatics🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 18:24
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.65%E -1.62%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 18:25
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.24%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.76%EV -8.70%E -2.17%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 18:24
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.93%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 18:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.93%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 10:46
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -8.93%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 10:31
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.93%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.93%E -2.23%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 17:21
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:45
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Casumo🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:45
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Unibet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:45
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:50
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -10.07%E -2.55%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 10:45
Neds🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -11.21%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -11.21%E -2.87%K -3.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -5.00%E -4.07%K -21.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -12.35%E -3.21%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 10:45
Fliff🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -6.55%E -5.41%K -31.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -12.35%E -3.21%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 18:15
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -12.80%E -3.34%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.39%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.61%EV -12.80%E -3.34%K -4.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-07 18:25
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -3.46%E -2.77%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -13.48%E -3.55%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 18:25
BetAnything🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -4.23%E -3.41%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-07 17:35
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 15:43
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.62%E -3.90%K -5.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 15:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -5.78%E -4.73%K -26.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -15.76%E -4.26%K -5.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 18:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -1.14%E -0.892%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -18.04%E -5.01%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 18:25
PlayUp🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -1.14%E -0.892%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -18.04%E -5.01%K -6.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 18:25
TAB🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -2.69%E -2.13%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -18.04%E -5.01%K -6.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 18:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%0.4%2026-08-07 18:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%0.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%0.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%0.4%2026-08-07 18:25
Matchbook◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%0.4%2026-08-07 18:25
ProphetX◎1.25I 80.00%NM 79.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%0.8%2026-08-07 18:25
Novig◎1.24I 80.65%NM 79.33%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.67%1.7%2026-08-07 18:26