La scuola delle quoteLingua:Italiano
Matteo Arnaldi v Alexandre Muller
Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →
Testa a testa
Matteo Arnaldi (Casa)
Previsione 46.79%2.14quota equa
EV +5.27%
Vantaggio +2.34%
Kelly +4.22%
Crescita +0.222%
ipotizzando la quota massima 2.25
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
41.56%46.22%47.33%52.22%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.832.021.972.2554.64%49.50%50.76%44.44%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Alexandre Muller (Trasferta)
Previsione 53.21%1.88quota equa
EV +6.43%
Vantaggio +3.21%
Kelly +6.43%
Crescita +0.413%
ipotizzando la quota massima 2.00
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
47.78%53.78%52.67%58.44%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.601.761.772.0062.50%56.82%56.50%50.00%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Quote dei bookmaker (23 bookmaker)
Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta ▼ | Margine | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -14.38%E -7.86%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +6.43%E +3.21%K +6.43%G +0.413% | 4.6% | 2026-04-05 12:13 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -7.83%E -3.98%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.55%E -0.840%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 12:11 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -7.83%E -3.98%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -1.55%E -0.840%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 12:12 |
| Bet Victor | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -11.11%E -5.85%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV -1.55%E -0.840%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 12:14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.67%EV -5.49%E -2.72%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.33%EV -2.09%E -1.13%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-05 11:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.64%E -5.57%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.62%E -1.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Coral | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.64%E -5.57%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -2.62%E -1.43%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| GTbets | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -6.43%E -3.21%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.15%E -1.73%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 11:29 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -8.77%E -4.50%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -3.15%E -1.73%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-05 12:11 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -10.64%E -5.57%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -4.22%E -2.34%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-05 12:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.56%E -2.23%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.28%E -2.97%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| BetRivers | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.33%EV -7.83%E -3.98%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.67%EV -5.81%E -3.28%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Betsson | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.77%E -4.50%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| NordicBet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.77%E -4.50%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| TAB | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.77%E -4.50%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -6.88%E -3.93%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.78%EV -12.04%E -6.41%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.22%EV -8.47%E -4.93%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-05 11:54 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.75%E -0.833%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.13%E -6.67%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Betway | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +5.27%E +2.34%K +4.22%G +0.222% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -12.20%E -7.39%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Coolbet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +5.27%E +2.34%K +4.22%G +0.222% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -12.20%E -7.39%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Fliff | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -4.09%E -1.99%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -12.20%E -7.39%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-05 12:14 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV +5.27%E +2.34%K +4.22%G +0.222% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -13.26%E -8.14%K -21.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 12:14 |
| theScore Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +2.93%E +1.33%K +2.44%G +0.072% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -13.79%E -8.51%K -22.25%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV +5.27%E +2.34%K +4.22%G +0.222% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -14.86%E -9.29%K -24.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale
Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.
Borse di scommesse (5)
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta | Margine ▲ | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.26% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.74% | 0.7% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Novig | 2.11I 47.39%NM 46.31% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.69% | 2.3% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.97% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.03% | 3.1% | 2026-04-05 12:15 |