Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent v AGF Aarhus

Início: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC

Final: Gent 1–0 AGF Aarhus

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

42 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Gent (Local)

Previsão 58.05%1.72odd justa
EV -3.64%
Vantagem -2.19%
Kelly -5.51%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.66

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
55.93%58.09%58.22%59.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.531.601.601.6665.36%62.36%62.50%60.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

AGF Aarhus (Visitante)

Previsão 18.42%5.43odd justa
EV +3.13%
Vantagem +0.559%
Kelly +0.681%
Crescimento +0.021%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.78%18.44%18.30%20.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.405.075.005.6022.73%19.74%20.00%17.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.53%4.25odd justa
EV +1.20%
Vantagem +0.278%
Kelly +0.363%
Crescimento +0.004%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
22.19%23.47%23.47%24.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.603.933.904.3027.78%25.46%25.64%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Gent (Local): 58.05%; AGF Aarhus (Visitante): 18.42%; Empate: 23.53%. Para AGF Aarhus (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.43. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.60, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.13%.

Odds das casas de apostas (42 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV +3.13%E +0.559%K +0.681%G +0.021%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 16:40
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.11%EV -7.70%E -4.84%K -13.05%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV +3.13%E +0.559%K +0.681%G +0.021%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -5.96%E -3.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV +1.29%E +0.235%K +0.287%G +0.004%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-15 16:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.06%EV -3.64%E -2.19%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.85%EV -0.550%E -0.102%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-15 16:25
ReBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.32%EV -5.96%E -3.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.80%EV -0.550%E -0.102%K -0.125%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.88%EV -1.16%E -0.275%K -0.362%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 15:50
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.54%EV -4.80%E -2.93%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 17.98%EV -1.66%E -0.310%K -0.381%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.48%EV -3.75%E -0.916%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 16:40
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.95%EV -5.38%E -3.30%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.82%EV -2.39%E -0.451%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV +1.20%E +0.278%K +0.363%G +0.004%4.8%2026-10-15 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.64%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV +1.20%E +0.278%K +0.363%G +0.004%4.8%2026-10-15 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.80%E -2.93%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 16:39
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.70%EV -5.96%E -3.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.11%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -3.51%E -0.856%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 16:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.51%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-15 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 15:50
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.66%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 16:19
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.31%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.77%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-15 16:20
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -3.31%E -0.631%K -0.779%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:38
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -4.23%E -0.814%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -4.23%E -0.814%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:50
Bovada🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.56%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -4.23%E -0.814%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 16:20
picklebet_au🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -5.38%E -3.30%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.84%EV -5.96%E -3.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 16:20
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.64%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-15 16:39
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -8.86%E -5.64%K -15.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 15:49
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -11.18%E -7.31%K -21.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-15 15:40
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.45%EV -10.02%E -6.47%K -18.22%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -7.92%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -15.28%E -4.24%K -5.88%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.20%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.81%EV -8.84%E -1.79%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.99%EV -4.69%E -1.16%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 15:35
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.92%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.92%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.56%EV -9.76%E -1.99%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -12.92%E -3.49%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-15 16:30
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.24%EV -8.28%E -5.24%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.65%EV -10.68%E -2.20%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -11.75%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 16:30
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.96%EV -4.80%E -2.93%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.72%EV -11.23%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.31%EV +0.255%E +0.060%K +0.078%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-15 16:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -5.96%E -3.68%K -9.61%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-15 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:20
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -6.54%E -4.06%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.51%EV -7.70%E -4.84%K -13.05%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%EV -8.22%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.31%EV -8.28%E -5.24%K -14.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.86%EV -11.60%E -2.42%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -7.12%E -4.45%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -17.13%E -3.81%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -5.86%E -1.47%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-15 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.93%EV -9.44%E -6.05%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.83%EV -18.97%E -4.31%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.24%EV -15.28%E -4.24%K -5.88%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-15 16:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (3)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.81%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64%0.7%2026-10-15 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.64%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-10-15 16:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.64%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-10-15 16:40