Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Servette v Grasshopper Zürich

2026-08-08 18:30 UTC — Swiss Superleague

Resultado del partido

34 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Servette (Local)

Predicción 58.27%1.72momio equitativo
EV -3.28%
Ventaja -1.97%
Kelly -4.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
55.37%58.29%58.22%60.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.521.591.601.6665.79%62.88%62.50%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Grasshopper Zürich (Visitante)

Predicción 19.07%5.24momio equitativo
EV -0.829%
Ventaja -0.159%
Kelly -0.197%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.97%19.04%19.15%20.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.724.755.2023.81%21.19%21.05%19.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.66%4.41momio equitativo
EV -2.55%
Ventaja -0.594%
Kelly -0.774%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.73%22.66%22.63%23.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.994.004.3027.78%25.05%25.00%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Servette (Local): 58.27%; Grasshopper Zürich (Visitante): 19.07%; Empate: 22.66%. Para Grasshopper Zürich (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.24. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 5.20, con un valor esperado de -0.829%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
GTbets1.66I 60.24%NM 57.39%EV -3.28%E -1.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.21%EV -5.41%E -1.09%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.41%EV -7.77%E -1.91%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 16:40
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -12.27%E -2.67%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 18:33
Coolbet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.34%EV -5.03%E -3.08%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -4.64%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -4.82%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 15:34
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.93%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.42%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 15:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -17.42%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -15.02%E -4.00%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-02 18:34
Neds1.62I 61.73%NM 55.37%EV -5.61%E -3.46%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.71%EV -17.42%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%EV -15.02%E -4.00%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-02 18:35
888sport1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.19%E -3.85%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 15:50
888sport (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.19%E -3.85%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 15:49
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.19%E -3.85%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 15:50
Coral1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -6.19%E -3.85%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -17.42%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -15.02%E -4.00%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-02 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 55.52%EV -6.19%E -3.85%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -17.42%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -15.02%E -4.00%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-02 18:35
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 59.20%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%5.06I 19.76%NM 18.72%EV -3.50%E -0.691%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.08%EV -2.78%E -0.648%K -0.845%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 17:05
1xBet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.57%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.97I 20.12%NM 18.85%EV -5.21%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.58%EV -5.95%E -1.43%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-02 16:55
LowVig.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.46%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 17:00
BetOnline.ag1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.46%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:59
Codere (IT)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.02%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.46%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 16:50
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 57.97%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.12%EV -7.50%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -8.22%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 16:50
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.97%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.12%EV -7.50%E -1.55%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.90%EV -8.22%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 16:50
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 57.41%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -10.48%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 15:35
betfred_uk1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -12.27%E -2.67%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-02 15:35
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -7.36%E -4.63%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.64%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 15:35
Fanatics1.59I 62.89%NM 58.62%EV -7.36%E -4.63%K -12.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.64%E -0.929%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 16:00
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 58.17%EV -7.36%E -4.63%K -12.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -8.46%E -1.76%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.56%EV -7.09%E -1.73%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-02 16:35
Marathon Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.05%EV -7.94%E -5.02%K -13.69%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.47%EV -3.69%E -0.731%K -0.911%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.48%EV -5.95%E -1.43%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 16:50
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -7.94%E -5.02%K -13.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 16:50
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.38%EV -8.52%E -5.43%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -6.55%E -1.34%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 15:35
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -8.52%E -5.43%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -9.41%E -1.98%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -9.35%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 15:35
LeoVegas1.57I 63.69%NM 57.96%EV -8.52%E -5.43%K -14.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.57%EV -11.32%E -2.43%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.47%EV -8.22%E -2.03%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 18:34
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.29%EV -9.69%E -6.25%K -17.61%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -0.829%E -0.159%K -0.197%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -2.55%E -0.594%K -0.774%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:05
Betclic (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 58.36%EV -10.85%E -7.09%K -20.48%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.20%EV -11.32%E -2.43%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.44%EV -9.80%E -2.46%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-02 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -10.85%E -7.09%K -20.48%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.45%EV -13.22%E -2.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.70%EV -11.62%E -2.98%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-02 18:34
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 56.23%EV -10.85%E -7.09%K -20.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -17.42%E -4.02%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -18.42%E -5.12%K -7.08%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 15:35
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 57.53%EV -11.44%E -7.52%K -21.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.34%EV -17.99%E -4.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.14%EV -10.48%E -2.65%K -3.55%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-02 16:50
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 56.92%EV -11.44%E -7.52%K -21.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.60%EV -19.90%E -4.74%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.47%EV -12.75%E -3.31%K -4.47%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 16:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.16%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%8.8%2026-08-02 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.16%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%8.8%2026-08-02 20:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.16%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%8.8%2026-08-02 20:54
Smarkets1.57I 63.69%NM 57.93%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%10.0%2026-08-02 20:55