La escuela de los momios

Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao

Inicio: 2026-02-28 13:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Rayo Vallecano (Local)

Predicción 37.77%2.65momio equitativo
EV -0.667%
Ventaja -0.254%
Kelly -0.409%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.19%37.75%37.80%38.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.382.492.502.6342.02%40.09%40.00%38.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Athletic Bilbao (Visitante)

Predicción 31.43%3.18momio equitativo
EV -0.355%
Ventaja -0.112%
Kelly -0.163%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.32%31.46%31.40%32.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.993.003.1736.36%33.44%33.33%31.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.80%3.25momio equitativo
EV -1.45%
Ventaja -0.453%
Kelly -0.659%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.65%30.79%30.80%31.74%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.073.103.2036.36%32.54%32.26%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 37.08%EV -0.667%E -0.254%K -0.409%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.97%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.6%2026-02-28 11:15
1xBet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.87%EV -1.80%E -0.692%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 31.06%EV -0.355%E -0.112%K -0.163%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 31.06%EV -2.37%E -0.749%K -1.09%G +0.000%1.6%2026-02-28 11:15
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.52%EV -1.80%E -0.692%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.99%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.49%EV -1.45%E -0.453%K -0.659%G +0.000%2.5%2026-02-28 03:29
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 37.34%EV -1.80%E -0.692%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.83%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 03:29
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 37.34%EV -1.80%E -0.692%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.83%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-28 03:29
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -1.80%E -0.692%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 11:15
Pinnacle2.57I 38.91%NM 37.88%EV -2.93%E -1.14%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.31%EV -2.24%E -0.720%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.81%EV -2.68%E -0.848%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.7%2026-02-28 10:51
Marathon Bet2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -3.31%E -1.29%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%EV -1.93%E -0.617%K -0.909%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.07%EV -3.91%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-28 11:15
BetOnline.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 37.75%EV -3.31%E -1.29%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.81%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 09:55
LowVig.ag2.56I 39.06%NM 37.75%EV -3.31%E -1.29%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.58%EV -3.81%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.68%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-28 09:55
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -3.69%E -1.45%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.76%EV -0.983%E -0.312%K -0.457%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.25%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 21:35
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 37.61%EV -3.69%E -1.45%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.45%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.94%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 06:29
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.42%EV -3.69%E -1.45%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.80%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.78%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-28 11:15
Betclic (FR)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.16%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -3.50%E -1.14%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.52%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-28 10:49
NordicBet2.52I 39.68%NM 37.80%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -6.33%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 11:15
Betsson2.52I 39.68%NM 37.80%EV -4.82%E -1.91%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -6.33%E -2.12%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.24%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 11:15
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 38.08%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.21%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 06:29
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 21:54
Bovada2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 11:10
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -2.56%E -0.824%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 11:13
Everygame2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 09:54
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.07%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 08:29
Casumo2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
Grosvenor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
Unibet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:48
TABtouch2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
betPARX2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
Bally Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 10:50
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 08:44
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 08:44
BetRivers2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -6.07%E -1.99%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 10:50
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-28 11:15
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -5.58%E -2.23%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.13%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 06:04
Unibet (FR)2.49I 40.16%NM 38.25%EV -5.96%E -2.39%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.23%EV -4.13%E -1.35%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.53%EV -3.91%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 11:15
theScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.73%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.65%EV -1.45%E -0.453%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 09:19
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 08:44
Coral2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:55
BetMGM2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:55
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -2.56%E -0.824%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:55
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-28 09:55
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.34%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.84%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.82%EV -2.99%E -0.949%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 10:50
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -7.27%E -2.46%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 09:24
PMU (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 08:44
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 10:50
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 08:29
Bet Right2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 09:04
NetBet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.13%EV -6.64%E -2.24%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.13%EV -8.53%E -2.87%K -4.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-28 11:15
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 06:43
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -10.69%E -3.69%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 06:49
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 05:29
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 05:29
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -7.47%E -3.05%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -9.47%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-28 03:29
Parions Sport (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -4.53%E -1.46%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 10:50
PlayUp2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -5.70%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -7.61%E -2.54%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-26 20:59
Fliff2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -9.35%E -3.90%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.33%EV -8.84%E -3.05%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -9.15%E -3.10%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-28 11:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.62%EV -10.11%E -4.25%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -13.56%E -4.93%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.69%EV -15.31%E -5.57%K -8.75%G +0.000%14.7%2026-02-28 10:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-02-28 11:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-02-28 11:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-02-28 11:15
Matchbook2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.04%0.7%2026-02-28 11:15
Smarkets2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.47%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.98%0.9%2026-02-28 11:15