La escuela de los momios

Braga v Sporting Lisbon

Inicio: 2026-03-07 18:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Braga (Local)

Predicción 25.65%3.90momio equitativo
EV +0.026%
Ventaja +0.007%
Kelly +0.009%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.87%25.59%25.61%27.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.703.703.9029.41%27.05%27.03%25.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sporting Lisbon (Visitante)

Predicción 47.12%2.12momio equitativo
EV -2.46%
Ventaja -1.19%
Kelly -2.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.96%47.15%47.13%49.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.821.951.952.0754.95%51.16%51.28%48.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.23%3.67momio equitativo
EV -0.602%
Ventaja -0.165%
Kelly -0.227%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.81%27.26%27.25%28.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.433.453.6532.26%29.15%28.99%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.74%EV -2.46%E -1.19%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 17:49
BetOnline.ag3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.74%EV -2.46%E -1.19%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 17:50
Svenska Spel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -10.00%E -5.24%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -3.33%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 17:34
ATG (SE)3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -10.00%E -5.24%K -10.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -3.33%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 17:34
FanDuel3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:34
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:35
Casumo3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:35
betPARX3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:34
Bally Bet3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV +0.026%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-07 17:35
1xBet3.89I 25.71%NM 24.94%EV -0.231%E -0.059%K -0.080%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.33%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.72%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-07 17:55
Unibet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -1.26%E -0.326%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:35
TABtouch3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -1.26%E -0.326%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:35
BetRivers3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -1.26%E -0.326%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:34
Unibet (SE)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -1.26%E -0.326%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:35
Unibet (NL)3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -1.26%E -0.326%K -0.441%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -11.41%E -6.07%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:34
Pinnacle3.83I 26.11%NM 25.26%EV -1.77%E -0.462%K -0.625%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.19%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.56%EV -4.41%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-07 17:49
Fanatics3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-07 17:54
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -9.53%E -4.96%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -0.602%E -0.165%K -0.227%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 17:44
Tipico (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 17:55
SportsBet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 17:34
Paddy Power3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-07 17:34
LiveScore Bet3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.29%EV -12.36%E -6.64%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-07 17:34
LeoVegas (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -2.54%E -0.668%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -12.83%E -6.93%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-07 17:34
Sky Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.82%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-07 17:34
Virgin Bet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -3.82%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.41%EV -13.30%E -7.23%K -15.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-07 17:34
LeoVegas3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV -3.82%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.49%EV -14.24%E -7.82%K -17.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 17:34
Betclic (FR)3.73I 26.81%NM 25.60%EV -4.33%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.74%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.67%EV -2.51%E -0.701%K -0.972%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:54
BetUS3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.10%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-07 17:55
Winamax (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -5.10%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.81%EV -10.47%E -5.51%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.12%EV -3.33%E -0.937%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 17:45
PMU (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 24.47%EV -5.10%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.66%EV -10.47%E -5.51%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-07 17:34
Everygame3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -6.39%E -1.75%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 17:55
Marathon Bet3.64I 27.47%NM 25.62%EV -6.64%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.11%EV -6.70%E -3.38%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -6.87%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-07 17:55
Coral3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-07 15:19
DraftKings3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 17:30
Unibet (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -6.70%E -3.38%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-07 17:45
888sport3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:55
Mr Green (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:55
888sport (SE)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:55
William Hill3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -11.49%E -3.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:54
Parions Sport (FR)3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.53%EV -9.06%E -4.69%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 24.22%EV -7.67%E -2.13%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 47.65%EV -13.77%E -7.52%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.13%EV -15.58%E -5.03%K -7.42%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-07 17:49
Betsson3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.95%E -2.52%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.70%E -3.38%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:50
NordicBet3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -8.95%E -2.52%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.91%EV -6.70%E -3.38%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-07 17:50
PlayUp3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.95%E -2.52%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 17:49
NetBet (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -8.95%E -2.52%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.30%EV -9.53%E -4.96%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.77%E -2.62%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-07 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 15:20
PointsBet (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Betr (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -1.96%E -0.545%K -0.755%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 17:40
Bet Right3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -6.70%E -3.38%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.69%E -1.34%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 17:40
BetMGM3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -5.76%E -2.88%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 15:19
Bet Victor3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -10.23%E -2.92%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.41%E -2.18%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-07 17:40
Neds3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.52%E -3.34%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 15:20
Ladbrokes (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -11.52%E -3.34%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.70%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -6.05%E -1.75%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-07 15:20
Betway3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -12.80%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -3.40%E -1.66%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 17:54
BoyleSports3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -12.80%E -3.76%K -5.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.12%E -4.16%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.13%E -3.07%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-07 16:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook4.10I 24.39%NM 24.33%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.96%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71%0.2%2026-03-07 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.79%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.9%2026-03-07 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-03-07 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 24.69%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.49%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-03-07 17:50
Smarkets3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.61%2.0%2026-03-07 17:55
Kalshi4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%2.0%2026-03-07 17:50