Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur v FC Twente Enschede

Inicio: 2026-08-30 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Cambuur 1–4 FC Twente Enschede

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur (Local)

Predicción 11.59%8.63momio equitativo
EV +21.70%
Ventaja +2.07%
Kelly +2.28%
Crecimiento +0.496%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.24%11.67%11.61%13.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.508.308.5010.5015.38%12.05%11.76%9.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Twente Enschede (Visitante)

Predicción 72.40%1.38momio equitativo
EV -2.99%
Ventaja -2.23%
Kelly -8.79%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
70.48%72.29%72.48%75.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.231.281.281.3481.30%78.01%78.13%74.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.01%6.24momio equitativo
EV +8.57%
Ventaja +1.26%
Kelly +1.48%
Crecimiento +0.127%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.29%16.04%15.91%17.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.795.786.7820.00%17.28%17.32%14.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Cambuur (Local): 11.59%; FC Twente Enschede (Visitante): 72.40%; Empate: 16.01%. Para SC Cambuur (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.63. 21 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 10.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +21.70%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.24%EV +21.70%E +2.07%K +2.28%G +0.496%1.29I 77.52%NM 75.23%EV -6.61%E -5.12%K -22.79%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.53%EV +0.083%E +0.013%K +0.016%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV +15.91%E +1.59%K +1.77%G +0.281%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.75%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.68%EV -2.32%E -0.380%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.57%EV +15.91%E +1.59%K +1.77%G +0.281%1.28I 78.13%NM 74.75%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.68%EV -2.32%E -0.380%K -0.455%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-30 17:45
Coolbet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.05%EV +10.11%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.120%1.29I 77.52%NM 74.03%EV -6.61%E -5.12%K -22.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 14:15
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +10.11%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.120%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.33%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +10.11%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.120%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.19%EV -7.12%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:45
Casumo🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +10.11%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.120%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.19%EV -7.12%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:45
betPARX🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV +10.11%E +1.06%K +1.19%G +0.120%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.93%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.19%EV -7.12%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 17:45
betano_uk🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 17:49
Bet Victor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 17:49
Betr (AU)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.38%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.53%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.12%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 17:05
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV +4.32%E +0.480%K +0.540%G +0.023%1.26I 79.37%NM 73.26%EV -8.78%E -6.97%K -33.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.80%EV -3.44%E -0.571%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.80%EV -3.44%E -0.571%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:20
BetAnything🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.80%EV -3.44%E -0.571%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:20
BetUS🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.31%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.80%EV -3.44%E -0.571%K -0.684%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 17:20
SportsBet🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.67%EV +1.42%E +0.162%K +0.183%G +0.003%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.95%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.38%EV -8.72%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 17:55
NordicBet🎯8.70I 11.49%NM 10.85%EV +0.839%E +0.096%K +0.109%G +0.001%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.60%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -8.72%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 17:55
Betsson🎯8.70I 11.49%NM 10.85%EV +0.839%E +0.096%K +0.109%G +0.001%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.60%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.56%EV -8.72%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 17:55
Pinnacle🎯8.68I 11.52%NM 11.05%EV +0.607%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 72.66%EV -4.44%E -3.36%K -13.87%G +0.000%5.89I 16.98%NM 16.28%EV -5.68%E -0.965%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-30 17:55
DraftKings🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.39%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 17:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 14:30
Bet Right🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.60%EV -8.78%E -6.97%K -33.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:15
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 14:15
BetRivers🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 17:45
TABtouch🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.86%EV -10.95%E -8.90%K -47.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -13.53%E -2.51%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 17:45
LiveScore Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.86%EV -10.95%E -8.90%K -47.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -13.53%E -2.51%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 17:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.54%EV -1.48%E -0.174%K -0.197%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 72.86%EV -10.95%E -8.90%K -47.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -13.53%E -2.51%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-30 17:45
Bovada🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -4.38%E -0.531%K -0.604%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -10.33%E -1.84%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 17:33
Marathon Bet🎯8.10I 12.35%NM 11.48%EV -6.12%E -0.755%K -0.861%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.63%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.89%EV -6.32%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 17:05
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 17:35
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.62%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.76%EV -5.52%E -0.936%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 17:15
PlayUp🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 17:45
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -7.27%E -0.909%K -1.04%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -19.93%E -3.99%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-30 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.39%EV -11.91%E -1.57%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.91%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 17:40
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.68%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.68%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 17:35
BetMGM🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.68%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -3.71%E -2.79%K -11.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 17:55
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.79%EV -5.16%E -3.94%K -16.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.67%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 17:55
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.07%E -1.74%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.50%E -7.60%K -38.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -15.93%E -3.03%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-30 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.48%EV -15.97%E -2.20%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.79%EV -8.78%E -6.97%K -33.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-30 17:39
1xBet🎯7.23I 13.83%NM 13.40%EV -16.20%E -2.24%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 72.31%EV -2.99%E -2.23%K -8.79%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.29%EV +8.57%E +1.26%K +1.48%G +0.127%3.2%2026-08-30 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.39%EV -16.55%E -2.30%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.95%EV -10.23%E -8.25%K -42.62%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.65%EV -8.72%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 17:40
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -18.87%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.93%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -7.12%E -1.23%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 17:50
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -18.87%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -18.87%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -18.87%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.83%EV -5.89%E -4.53%K -19.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -7.92%E -1.38%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 17:50
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -18.87%E -2.70%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.48%EV -6.61%E -5.12%K -22.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -11.93%E -2.17%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.52%EV -21.76%E -3.22%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.28%EV -7.33%E -5.73%K -26.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -3.92%E -0.653%K -0.784%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -24.66%E -3.79%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.51%EV -8.06%E -6.34%K -29.84%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.71%EV -8.72%E -1.53%K -1.86%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 17:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.98%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.92%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10%0.2%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%1.34I 74.63%NM 74.07%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.01%0.8%2026-08-30 17:55
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.88%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.31%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.81%1.2%2026-08-30 17:00
Smarkets◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.81%1.32I 75.76%NM 74.35%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.83%1.9%2026-08-30 17:50