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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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León v Guadalajara

2026-11-09 02:00 UTC — Liga MX

胜负盘

30 家博彩公司 (10 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

León (主队)

预测 30.21%3.31公平赔率
EV -2.71%
优势 -0.843%
Kelly -1.22%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.22

博彩公司预测分布
29.31%30.51%30.24%33.68%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.552.882.883.2239.22%34.76%34.72%31.06%最小值均值中位数最大值

Guadalajara (客队)

预测 43.21%2.31公平赔率
EV +3.71%
优势 +1.55%
Kelly +2.65%
增长率 +0.098%

假设最高赔率为 2.40

博彩公司预测分布
39.67%42.77%43.33%44.07%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.032.212.162.4049.26%45.30%46.30%41.67%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 26.57%3.76公平赔率
EV -3.00%
优势 -0.823%
Kelly -1.13%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.65

博彩公司预测分布
26.18%26.72%26.43%28.48%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.103.403.453.6532.26%29.42%28.99%27.40%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：León (主队)：30.21%；Guadalajara (客队)：43.21%；平局：26.57%。 对于“Guadalajara (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.31。 有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为2.40，由此产生+3.71%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (30 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.46%EV -12.99%E -4.51%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +3.71%E +1.55%K +2.65%G +0.098%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -3.00%E -0.823%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-02 05:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.46%EV -12.99%E -4.51%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +3.71%E +1.55%K +2.65%G +0.098%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -3.00%E -0.823%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.8%2026-11-02 05:00
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 05:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 05:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:55
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 04:55
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 05:00
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -16.91%E -6.15%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -0.611%E -0.266%K -0.470%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-02 05:00
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -10.87%E -3.69%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-11-02 03:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -19.94%E -7.52%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-02 05:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -19.94%E -7.52%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-02 05:00
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.68%EV -19.94%E -7.52%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -2.77%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.98%E -3.28%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-11-02 04:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.43%EV -19.94%E -7.52%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.73%EV -3.64%E -1.63%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-02 05:00
Pinnacle🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.67%EV -2.71%E -0.843%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.02%EV -6.23%E -2.87%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.31%EV -3.54%E -0.974%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-02 03:15
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.32%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.33%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-02 03:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.36%E -3.12%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.65%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-02 03:09
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -15.40%E -5.50%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-02 03:20
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.38%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-02 03:15
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.38%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-02 03:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.38%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-02 03:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.38%E -4.27%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -17.62%E -5.68%K -8.39%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-02 03:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.52%EV -22.96%E -9.00%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.76%EV -7.09%E -3.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.71%EV -14.96%E -4.68%K -6.80%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-02 05:00
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.07%EV -6.94%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.48%EV -7.96%E -3.74%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-02 03:10
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -4.83%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -8.39%E -3.96%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.65%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-02 03:05
NordicBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -4.83%E -1.53%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.54%EV -8.39%E -3.96%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.65%E -2.84%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-02 03:05
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -10.87%E -3.69%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.86%EV -8.39%E -3.96%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -8.32%E -2.41%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-02 03:10
Marathon Bet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 30.08%EV -7.55%E -2.47%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.62%EV -8.82%E -4.18%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 03:04
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.34%E -2.04%K -3.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -9.25%E -4.41%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.99%E -2.00%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-02 07:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.38%EV -12.99%E -4.51%K -6.91%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.10%EV -12.28%E -6.05%K -11.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -12.30%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-11-02 03:09
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (2)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-11-02 05:40
Smarkets◎2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%2.04I 49.02%NM 42.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.25%16.5%2026-11-02 03:10