Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gangwon FC v Bucheon FC 1995

Inicio: 2026-08-01 10:30 UTC

Final: Gangwon FC 0–3 Bucheon FC 1995

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Gangwon FC (Local)

Predicción 59.24%1.69momio equitativo
EV -1.66%
Ventaja -0.999%
Kelly -2.51%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.14%59.31%59.17%61.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.531.541.6669.93%65.21%64.94%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bucheon FC 1995 (Visitante)

Predicción 16.31%6.13momio equitativo
EV +1.94%
Ventaja +0.310%
Kelly +0.369%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.62%16.21%16.39%17.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.705.756.2520.00%17.53%17.39%16.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.45%4.09momio equitativo
EV -2.69%
Ventaja -0.677%
Kelly -0.904%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.58%24.48%24.44%25.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.723.703.9828.17%26.85%27.03%25.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Gangwon FC (Local): 59.24%; Bucheon FC 1995 (Visitante): 16.31%; Empate: 24.45%. Para Bucheon FC 1995 (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.13. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.94%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.43%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.54%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV +1.94%E +0.310%K +0.369%G +0.007%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.49%EV -5.87%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-01 09:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.01%EV -10.55%E -6.98%K -20.68%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.74%EV +1.94%E +0.310%K +0.369%G +0.007%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 09:35
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.27%EV -5.21%E -3.26%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.22I 16.08%NM 15.50%EV +1.45%E +0.233%K +0.277%G +0.004%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.23%EV -2.69%E -0.677%K -0.904%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-01 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.92%EV -11.73%E -7.87%K -23.94%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-01 09:35
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:34
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:35
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:34
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:35
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.04%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.71%EV -0.510%E -0.084%K -0.100%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-01 09:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.12%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 10:04
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.55%EV -8.77%E -5.69%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.54%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-01 09:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-01 09:50
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.36%E -6.12%K -17.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-01 09:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-01 10:05
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.89%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.92%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-01 09:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -15.28%E -10.69%K -35.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -2.14%E -0.357%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -10.76%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-01 09:35
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.37%EV -5.81%E -3.65%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -6.22%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -4.65%E -1.19%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 10:19
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -6.22%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-01 10:25
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.42%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -6.22%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-01 10:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.70%EV -9.95%E -6.55%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.78%EV -6.22%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-01 09:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -4.62%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV -8.66%E -1.55%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -5.87%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 10:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.63%EV -4.62%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.86%EV -8.66%E -1.55%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.52%EV -5.87%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-01 10:04
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.62%E -2.87%K -7.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-01 09:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -6.40%E -4.05%K -11.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.87%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-01 09:34
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.83%EV -5.21%E -3.26%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -10.76%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-01 10:15
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-01 10:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -5.21%E -3.26%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 10:25
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -5.21%E -3.26%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-01 10:24
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 09:34
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -8.18%E -5.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-01 09:34
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.97%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.36%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-01 09:50
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.71%EV -9.36%E -6.12%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-01 09:55
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.19%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.30%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-01 09:50
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.23%EV -1.66%E -0.999%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.43%EV -11.11%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.33%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-01 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -11.14%E -7.43%K -22.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.50%EV -11.93%E -2.21%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-01 10:04
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.75%EV -9.36%E -6.12%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.96%EV -13.56%E -2.56%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.29%EV -9.54%E -2.58%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-01 10:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.12%EV -12.91%E -8.79%K -27.48%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.40%EV -13.56%E -2.56%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.48%EV -13.21%E -3.72%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-01 10:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.62%EV -9.95%E -6.55%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -14.37%E -2.74%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%EV -10.76%E -2.95%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-01 10:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.96%EV -8.77%E -5.69%K -16.24%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.46%EV -15.19%E -2.92%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.58%EV -5.87%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-01 09:33
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.71%EV -9.95%E -6.55%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.50%EV -16.82%E -3.30%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.32%E -2.22%K -3.02%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-01 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.45%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-01 09:50
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.45%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-01 09:49
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.45%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-01 09:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -6.99%E -4.45%K -12.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -18.45%E -3.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.99%E -3.33%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-01 09:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.22%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-08-01 10:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-08-01 10:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.81%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-08-01 10:20
Kalshi1.64I 60.98%NM 60.40%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.75%1.0%2026-08-01 10:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 60.95%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.96%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-08-01 10:25
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 60.46%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.33%2.7%2026-08-01 10:25