Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dijon v Pau FC

Inicio: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Dijon 0–1 Pau FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dijon (Local)

Predicción 46.58%2.15momio equitativo
EV +0.144%
Ventaja +0.067%
Kelly +0.126%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.33%46.47%46.57%47.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.912.012.002.1552.36%49.87%50.00%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Pau FC (Visitante)

Predicción 26.04%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.277%
Kelly -0.376%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.59%26.03%26.02%27.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.503.503.8030.77%28.56%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.38%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.395%
Kelly -0.548%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.67%27.50%27.42%29.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.283.303.6033.33%30.53%30.30%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dijon (Local): 46.58%; Pau FC (Visitante): 26.04%; Empate: 27.38%. Para Dijon (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.147. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.150, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.144%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV +0.144%E +0.067%K +0.126%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV +0.144%E +0.067%K +0.126%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 18:04
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-14 18:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:05
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:04
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:05
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:04
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%EV -3.12%E -1.50%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -12.77%E -3.81%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:05
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.22%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.46%EV -5.53%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:29
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:29
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:29
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -4.51%E -2.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -16.48%E -5.40%K -8.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.33%EV -4.98%E -2.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -15.37%E -4.73%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -17.85%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-14 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.33%EV -4.98%E -2.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -15.37%E -4.73%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -17.85%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-14 18:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.33%EV -4.98%E -2.44%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.20%EV -15.37%E -4.73%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.47%EV -17.85%E -5.95%K -8.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-14 18:04
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.34%EV -5.44%E -2.68%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.69%EV -1.42%E -0.395%K -0.548%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-14 18:30
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.35%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -4.16%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 18:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 18:29
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.16%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:30
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 18:29
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -6.84%E -3.42%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -15.11%E -4.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.60%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.16%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.60%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.16%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 18:39
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.31%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.65%EV -1.05%E -0.277%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.04%EV -8.54%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.12%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -6.78%E -1.89%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.81%EV -4.71%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.73%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.49%EV -5.48%E -1.51%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.78%EV -8.82%E -2.65%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 18:31
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.55%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:30
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.27%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 18:29
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 18:34
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -7.77%E -3.93%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-14 18:34
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.05%E -0.277%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:40
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -1.05%E -0.277%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -3.66%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:30
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 18:40
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -4.96%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-14 18:33
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:35
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:34
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.32%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -7.56%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.23%EV -12.38%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 18:34
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 18:30
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.17%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -12.38%E -3.87%K -5.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:29
Suprabets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.81%EV -9.64%E -4.97%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.17%EV -9.65%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.03%EV -8.00%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.98%EV -10.10%E -5.23%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -7.56%E -2.13%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:40
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.03%E -5.78%K -12.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-08-14 18:34
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.31%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-08-14 18:30
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.98%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.40%1.4%2026-08-14 18:35