Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Stoke City

2026-08-29 11:30 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wolverhampton Wanderers (Local)

Predicción 64.32%1.55momio equitativo
EV -3.52%
Ventaja -2.35%
Kelly -7.04%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.50%64.17%64.46%66.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.331.441.441.5075.19%69.38%69.20%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stoke City (Visitante)

Predicción 14.77%6.77momio equitativo
EV +3.38%
Ventaja +0.483%
Kelly +0.564%
Crecimiento +0.019%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.13%14.85%14.61%17.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.956.306.407.0020.20%15.87%15.63%14.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.91%4.78momio equitativo
EV +0.376%
Ventaja +0.078%
Kelly +0.099%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.61%20.98%20.93%22.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.834.444.504.8026.11%22.54%22.22%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Wolverhampton Wanderers (Local): 64.32%; Stoke City (Visitante): 14.77%; Empate: 20.91%. Para Stoke City (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.77. 5 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 7.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.38%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -8.02%E -5.61%K -18.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV +3.38%E +0.483%K +0.564%G +0.019%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV +0.376%E +0.078%K +0.099%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-22 23:50
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -9.95%E -7.11%K -24.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +3.38%E +0.483%K +0.564%G +0.019%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 23:49
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -9.95%E -7.11%K -24.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +3.38%E +0.483%K +0.564%G +0.019%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 23:48
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.56%EV -4.16%E -2.79%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.87I 14.56%NM 13.78%EV +1.46%E +0.213%K +0.249%G +0.004%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.66%EV -12.59%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 23:50
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.56%EV -4.16%E -2.79%K -8.50%G +0.000%6.87I 14.56%NM 13.78%EV +1.46%E +0.213%K +0.249%G +0.004%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.66%EV -12.59%E -3.01%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 23:49
GTbets🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.32%EV -2.82%E -0.429%K -0.506%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.71%EV -4.85%E -1.07%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 00:15
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.93%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.75%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.31%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-22 20:09
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.54%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 23:55
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.24%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-22 20:09
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.85%EV -6.09%E -4.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-22 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.94%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -7.99%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-22 20:09
BetMGM🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 23:50
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.09%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV -7.99%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-22 20:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 23:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -8.67%E -6.10%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -0.669%E -0.141%K -0.178%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 23:50
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -8.67%E -6.10%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.24%EV -4.00%E -0.616%K -0.728%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.57%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 20:15
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.18%EV -6.09%E -4.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.53%EV -4.74%E -0.735%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -7.99%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 23:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.46%EV -4.74%E -0.735%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -7.99%E -1.82%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 23:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -5.48%E -0.856%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 23:54
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -5.48%E -0.856%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 23:54
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.53%EV -10.60%E -7.62%K -27.17%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -5.48%E -0.856%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 23:50
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.25%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%6.34I 15.77%NM 14.90%EV -6.37%E -1.00%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 20.85%EV -5.27%E -1.16%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 00:00
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.50%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -7.69%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 20:10
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.67%E -6.10%K -20.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV -7.69%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 23:50
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.40%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.71%EV -7.69%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -12.17%E -2.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 23:50
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:54
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 23:49
Bovada🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.78%EV -6.09%E -4.17%K -13.25%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 23:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 19:39
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 19:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.38%E -5.13%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-22 19:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -11.24%E -8.14%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -3.81%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-22 23:49
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -9.95%E -7.11%K -24.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -11.39%E -1.90%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -9.45%E -2.18%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-22 20:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.35%EV -13.17%E -9.75%K -37.63%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.72%EV -12.86%E -2.18%K -2.63%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.93%EV -13.22%E -3.18%K -4.20%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-22 23:49
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.52%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.02%EV -15.08%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -5.90%E -1.31%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-23 00:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 63.98%EV -14.46%E -10.87%K -43.80%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.76%EV -20.25%E -3.75%K -4.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.26%EV -12.17%E -2.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%17.5%2026-08-22 23:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.50%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.67%EV -26.89%E -5.43%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.84%EV -19.91%E -5.20%K -7.03%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-22 23:48
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.52I 65.79%NM 65.27%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.89%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.84%0.8%2026-08-23 01:54
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 64.50%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.88%14.0%2026-08-23 01:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.75%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%179.5%2026-08-23 01:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.75%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%179.5%2026-08-23 01:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 01:39

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