Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea City

2026-10-24 14:00 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Queens Park Rangers (Local)

Predicción 40.59%2.46momio equitativo
EV -0.964%
Ventaja -0.395%
Kelly -0.669%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.94%40.47%40.58%42.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.252.262.4450.00%44.37%44.15%40.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Swansea City (Visitante)

Predicción 32.04%3.12momio equitativo
EV +0.934%
Ventaja +0.297%
Kelly +0.435%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.41%32.10%32.14%33.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.652.922.923.1537.74%34.21%34.19%31.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.37%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.47%
Ventaja -0.409%
Kelly -0.566%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.61%27.43%27.29%29.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.57%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Queens Park Rangers (Local): 40.59%; Swansea City (Visitante): 32.04%; Empate: 27.37%. Para Swansea City (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.12. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.15, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.934%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -7.46%E -3.27%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV +0.934%E +0.297%K +0.435%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -1.47%E -0.409%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -7.46%E -3.27%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV +0.934%E +0.297%K +0.435%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -1.47%E -0.409%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -7.46%E -3.27%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.71%EV +0.934%E +0.297%K +0.435%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -1.47%E -0.409%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:50
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 15:05
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 14:50
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 14:50
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 14:50
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.18%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.89%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 14:50
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -3.87%E -1.29%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 14:50
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.62%E -1.96%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 14:40
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.62%E -1.96%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.62%E -1.96%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 18:30
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -5.58%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.01%EV -11.52%E -5.28%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.05%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 14:50
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -11.92%E -5.49%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -11.92%E -5.49%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:50
TABtouch🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -11.92%E -5.49%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.96%EV -11.92%E -5.49%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.86%EV -5.47%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 14:50
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 14:50
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 14:50
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.99%EV -3.40%E -1.43%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.00%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 15:20
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 15:18
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 15:15
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-17 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.90%EV -13.14%E -6.14%K -11.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.08%E -2.44%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 14:50
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.65%E -2.89%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.72%E -2.68%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 15:05
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.07%EV -0.964%E -0.395%K -0.669%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.22%EV -8.04%E -2.80%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.71%EV -5.85%E -1.70%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 15:25
ReBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 40.42%EV -10.30%E -4.66%K -8.51%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.67%EV -9.64%E -3.42%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.65%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 14:10
1xBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.94%EV -2.59%E -1.08%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -9.96%E -3.54%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.81%EV -8.04%E -2.39%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.09%EV -3.40%E -1.43%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -10.28%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 27.69%EV -8.04%E -2.39%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 14:50
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.68%E -3.86%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.28%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.95%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 14:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -10.71%E -4.87%K -8.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -10.28%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.88%EV -12.73%E -5.92%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -10.28%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.73%EV -13.24%E -4.18%K -6.10%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-17 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.57%EV -18.82%E -9.41%K -18.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.41%EV -10.28%E -3.67%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.03%EV -13.79%E -4.38%K -6.41%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-17 14:10
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -4.62%E -1.96%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.43%EV -11.88%E -4.32%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.49%EV -14.76%E -7.03%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.08%EV -15.09%E -5.69%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.43%EV -15.16%E -4.89%K -7.22%G +0.000%17.6%2026-10-17 14:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.67%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.06%7.0%2026-10-17 16:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 22.60%1.37I 72.99%NM 39.93%1.46I 68.49%NM 37.47%82.8%2026-10-17 18:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 22.60%1.37I 72.99%NM 39.93%1.46I 68.49%NM 37.47%82.8%2026-10-17 18:15
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 23.46%1.27I 78.74%NM 39.16%1.33I 75.19%NM 37.39%101.1%2026-10-17 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-17 15:40