L’École des cotes

Bragantino-SP v Blooming

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-17 00:30 UTC

Score final : Bragantino-SP 3–2 Blooming

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

24 opérateurs (3 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prévision 71.89%1.39cote équitable
EV -3.67%
Avantage -2.74%
Kelly -10.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.34

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
67.49%71.89%72.23%73.77%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.221.281.291.3481.97%78.00%77.52%74.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Blooming (Visiteur)

Prévision 10.17%9.84cote équitable
EV -1.90%
Avantage -0.197%
Kelly -0.220%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 9.65

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
9.79%10.17%9.88%13.81%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.508.588.509.6515.38%11.66%11.76%10.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 17.95%5.57cote équitable
EV +9.48%
Avantage +1.55%
Kelly +1.86%
Croissance +0.176%

avec la cote maximale 6.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
15.74%17.95%17.89%19.58%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.505.335.226.1022.22%18.76%19.14%16.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 73.22%EV -4.39%E -3.30%K -13.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.82%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.96%EV +9.48%E +1.55%K +1.86%G +0.176%2.7%2026-04-17 00:24
Svenska Spel1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.27%E -5.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.55%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV +7.69%E +1.28%K +1.54%G +0.118%5.3%2026-04-17 00:25
Unibet1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.98%E -6.24%K -28.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV +7.69%E +1.28%K +1.54%G +0.118%5.9%2026-04-17 00:20
Casumo1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.98%E -6.24%K -28.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV +7.69%E +1.28%K +1.54%G +0.118%5.9%2026-04-17 00:19
Unibet (NL)1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.98%E -6.24%K -28.52%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV +7.69%E +1.28%K +1.54%G +0.118%5.9%2026-04-17 00:20
LiveScore Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 73.45%EV -10.86%E -8.76%K -45.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV +3.20%E +0.556%K +0.674%G +0.022%9.8%2026-04-17 00:24
Virgin Bet1.24I 80.65%NM 73.45%EV -10.86%E -8.76%K -45.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV +3.20%E +0.556%K +0.674%G +0.022%9.8%2026-04-17 00:24
LeoVegas1.24I 80.65%NM 73.45%EV -10.86%E -8.76%K -45.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV +3.20%E +0.556%K +0.674%G +0.022%9.8%2026-04-17 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.24I 80.65%NM 73.14%EV -10.86%E -8.76%K -45.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.19%EV +0.507%E +0.091%K +0.110%G +0.001%10.3%2026-04-17 00:25
1xBet1.34I 74.63%NM 69.78%EV -3.67%E -2.74%K -10.80%G +0.000%7.11I 14.06%NM 13.15%EV -27.72%E -3.90%K -4.54%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.06%EV -1.65%E -0.300%K -0.368%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 00:24
Pinnacle1.30I 76.92%NM 72.66%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%9.65I 10.36%NM 9.79%EV -1.90%E -0.197%K -0.220%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.56%EV -3.44%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 00:20
DraftKings1.30I 76.92%NM 72.23%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -3.43%E -0.361%K -0.403%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -5.77%E -1.10%K -1.36%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 00:20
Bovada1.32I 75.76%NM 71.19%EV -5.11%E -3.87%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.74%EV -11.05%E -1.26%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.07%EV -6.67%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 00:23
888sport1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 00:24
888sport (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 00:25
Mr Green (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 00:24
William Hill1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -6.55%E -5.04%K -21.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-17 00:24
SportsBet1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -10.14%E -8.11%K -40.57%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-17 00:15
Paddy Power1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -12.30%E -10.08%K -55.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -8.51%E -0.946%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -10.26%E -2.05%K -2.57%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-17 00:25
NordicBet1.29I 77.52%NM 71.46%EV -7.27%E -5.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.91%EV -5.46%E -0.587%K -0.658%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.62%EV -11.16%E -2.25%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-17 00:25
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 67.49%EV -4.39%E -3.30%K -13.30%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -33.92%E -5.22%K -6.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.70%EV -13.85%E -2.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-17 00:19
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.14%E -8.11%K -40.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.03%EV -18.68%E -2.33%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -13.85%E -2.89%K -3.64%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-17 00:14
betfred_uk1.29I 77.52%NM 69.82%EV -7.27%E -5.63%K -25.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -13.59%E -1.60%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.58%EV -17.44%E -3.79%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-17 00:19
Unibet (FR)1.26I 79.37%NM 69.06%EV -9.42%E -7.48%K -36.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.60%EV -23.76%E -3.17%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.34%EV -19.24%E -4.27%K -5.50%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-17 00:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-04-17 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-04-17 00:25
Matchbook1.33I 75.19%NM 74.48%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.51%0.9%2026-04-17 00:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.32I 75.76%NM 74.63%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.96%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.42%1.5%2026-04-17 00:24
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 74.10%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.58%2.2%2026-04-17 00:24