Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Zhejiang v Wuhan Three Towns

Inicio: 2026-09-18 11:35 UTC

Final: Zhejiang 4–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Zhejiang (Local)

Predicción 49.38%2.03momio equitativo
EV -4.20%
Ventaja -2.17%
Kelly -4.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.20%49.48%49.32%52.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.841.851.9460.24%54.42%54.05%51.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante)

Predicción 28.33%3.53momio equitativo
EV +4.82%
Ventaja +1.30%
Kelly +1.78%
Crecimiento +0.086%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.17%28.20%28.35%29.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.323.273.7034.48%30.11%30.53%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.29%4.49momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.436%
Kelly -0.564%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.51%22.31%22.33%23.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.114.204.4026.32%24.33%23.81%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Zhejiang (Local): 49.38%; Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante): 28.33%; Empate: 22.29%. Para Wuhan Three Towns (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.53. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.70, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.82%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -13.09%E -7.44%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV +4.82%E +1.30%K +1.78%G +0.086%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 11:30
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.70%EV -10.62%E -5.87%K -13.12%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.07%EV +1.70%E +0.474%K +0.657%G +0.011%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.23%EV -6.15%E -1.46%K -1.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 11:27
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.67%EV -15.56%E -9.10%K -21.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV +0.567%E +0.160%K +0.222%G +0.001%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -8.60%E -2.10%K -2.78%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-18 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -16.05%E -9.44%K -22.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -0.849%E -0.243%K -0.340%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 11:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.59%EV -18.03%E -10.86%K -27.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.31%EV -2.27%E -0.657%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.10%EV -11.95%E -3.02%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-18 11:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.59%EV -18.03%E -10.86%K -27.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.31%EV -2.27%E -0.657%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.10%EV -11.95%E -3.02%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-18 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.54%EV -4.20%E -2.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.10%EV -3.12%E -0.911%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.35%EV -4.15%E -0.964%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 10:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.46%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.68%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 11:30
BetUS🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.46%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -3.68%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 11:30
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.64%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.05%EV -4.15%E -0.964%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 11:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.25%EV -5.19%E -2.70%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.23%EV -5.10%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 11:29
GTbets🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.86%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.70%EV -5.67%E -1.70%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 22.44%EV -8.38%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-18 10:35
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.81%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.51%EV -1.92%E -0.436%K -0.564%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 11:29
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 11:15
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 11:19
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-18 11:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.30%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.76%EV -9.72%E -2.40%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 10:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.24%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.51%E -1.97%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 11:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.70%EV -4.70%E -2.43%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.92%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 10:25
SportsBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.96%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 11:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.62%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -5.26%E -1.24%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 11:30
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 11:30
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 11:30
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 11:30
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 11:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.22%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 11:30
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -7.93%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -14.18%E -3.68%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 11:30
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 11:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.47%EV -6.67%E -3.53%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 10:30
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.20%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -11.95%E -3.02%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 10:25
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.20%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.18%EV -11.95%E -3.02%K -4.05%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 10:25
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.81%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -6.37%E -1.52%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 11:30
LeoVegas🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.39%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -10.76%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -8.60%E -2.10%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 11:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -8.60%E -2.10%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-18 10:25
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.29%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-18 11:20
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.06%E -3.35%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-18 11:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -8.65%E -4.67%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.81%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -13.06%E -3.35%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-18 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.47%EV -9.14%E -4.97%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -13.60%E -4.46%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.29%EV -10.83%E -2.71%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-18 10:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.65%EV -16.05%E -9.44%K -22.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.14%EV -15.01%E -5.00%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.21%EV -15.29%E -4.02%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.5%2026-09-18 11:15
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.74%EV -14.57%E -8.42%K -19.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.07%EV -17.85%E -6.15%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.19%EV -15.29%E -4.02%K -5.46%G +0.000%18.6%2026-09-18 11:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%3.57I 28.01%NM 28.00%4.76I 21.01%NM 21.00%0.0%2026-09-18 11:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.15%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.78%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.06%0.7%2026-09-18 11:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-09-18 11:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-09-18 11:20
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.40%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.64%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.96%1.2%2026-09-18 11:20