L’École des cotes

Palmeiras v Grêmio

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-01 20:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

27 opérateurs (10 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Palmeiras (Local)

Prévision 61.97%1.61cote équitable
EV -4.57%
Avantage -2.97%
Kelly -8.46%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.54

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
59.71%62.01%61.86%63.87%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.471.491.5475.76%68.04%67.11%64.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Grêmio (Visiteur)

Prévision 15.53%6.44cote équitable
EV +0.956%
Avantage +0.147%
Kelly +0.174%
Croissance +0.002%

avec la cote maximale 6.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
14.44%15.48%15.66%17.54%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.805.755.756.5020.83%17.40%17.39%15.38%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 22.50%4.44cote équitable
EV -0.999%
Avantage -0.227%
Kelly -0.294%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.37%22.51%22.49%24.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.504.004.004.4028.57%25.01%25.00%22.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (27 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.31%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.61%EV +0.956%E +0.147%K +0.174%G +0.002%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -3.25%E -0.756%K -0.985%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 06:14
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.87%EV -8.91%E -6.06%K -18.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +0.956%E +0.147%K +0.174%G +0.002%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.68%EV -2.57%E -0.595%K -0.773%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 23:10
1xBet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.22%EV -4.57%E -2.97%K -8.46%G +0.000%6.38I 15.67%NM 15.02%EV -0.908%E -0.142%K -0.169%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.76%EV -5.27%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-23 01:09
Marathon Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.05%EV -3.70%E -0.597%K -0.712%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-23 01:09
Codere (IT)1.49I 67.11%NM 62.00%EV -7.67%E -5.15%K -15.65%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.90%EV -3.70%E -0.597%K -0.712%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-20 18:24
Fanatics1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -5.19%E -3.39%K -9.79%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.81%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -3.25%E -0.756%K -0.985%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 19:30
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.86%EV -8.29%E -5.60%K -17.26%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -6.81%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.25%E -0.756%K -0.985%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 23:05
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -10.77%E -7.48%K -24.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -6.81%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 23:10
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -10.77%E -7.48%K -24.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -6.81%E -1.14%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -14.50%E -3.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-21 00:55
Fliff1.44I 69.44%NM 62.42%EV -10.77%E -7.48%K -24.47%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.11%EV -7.59%E -1.28%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-23 06:54
NordicBet1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.81%E -3.82%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -8.36%E -1.42%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -6.62%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 18:24
Betsson1.52I 65.79%NM 61.58%EV -5.81%E -3.82%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.86%EV -8.36%E -1.42%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.55%EV -6.62%E -1.60%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 18:24
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.92%E -1.71%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-23 01:09
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 61.80%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.12%EV -10.69%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.07%EV -5.50%E -1.31%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 22:29
888sport1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.69%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-23 01:09
888sport (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.69%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-23 01:09
Mr Green (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.69%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.00%E -2.50%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-23 01:10
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -7.05%E -4.70%K -14.10%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -11.47%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -7.75%E -1.89%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-23 01:09
Bovada1.52I 65.79%NM 61.85%EV -5.81%E -3.82%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -13.02%E -2.33%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -0.999%E -0.227%K -0.294%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 22:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 59.76%EV -10.77%E -7.48%K -24.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.65%EV -14.58%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -21.25%E -6.07%K -8.50%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-22 23:35
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 62.63%EV -18.20%E -13.79%K -56.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.03%EV -14.58%E -2.65%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.34%EV -16.75%E -4.53%K -6.20%G +0.000%21.0%2026-03-22 23:09
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 60.49%EV -10.77%E -7.48%K -24.47%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.59%EV -18.46%E -3.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.92%EV -14.50%E -3.82%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-23 06:53
Betclic (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 60.64%EV -12.01%E -8.45%K -28.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.40%EV -18.46%E -3.52%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.96%EV -15.62%E -4.17%K -5.68%G +0.000%16.1%2026-03-22 21:44
Parions Sport (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 60.36%EV -12.01%E -8.45%K -28.58%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.48%EV -19.24%E -3.70%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.16%EV -16.75%E -4.53%K -6.20%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-22 21:44
Winamax (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.38%EV -10.15%E -7.00%K -22.55%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.17%EV -20.79%E -4.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.45%EV -12.25%E -3.14%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-22 21:45
Unibet (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 59.91%EV -13.86%E -9.97%K -35.55%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 16.82%EV -23.12%E -4.67%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 23.26%EV -19.45%E -5.43%K -7.54%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-22 21:50
Winamax (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 59.71%EV -12.62%E -8.95%K -30.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.54%EV -25.45%E -5.30%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.75%EV -16.75%E -4.53%K -6.20%G +0.000%18.8%2026-03-22 21:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-22 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.05I 95.24%NM 33.23%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.55%186.6%2026-03-22 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-03-22 19:25