La escuela de los momios

Mirassol v Corinthians

Inicio: 2026-05-03 23:30 UTC

Final: Mirassol 2–1 Corinthians

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Mirassol (Local)

Predicción 36.01%2.78momio equitativo
EV +5.50%
Ventaja +1.88%
Kelly +2.85%
Crecimiento +0.156%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.13%36.00%36.01%38.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.352.562.582.9342.55%39.11%38.76%34.13%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Corinthians (Visitante)

Predicción 32.10%3.12momio equitativo
EV +1.12%
Ventaja +0.355%
Kelly +0.520%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.82%32.13%32.07%34.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.652.932.923.1537.74%34.18%34.25%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.89%3.14momio equitativo
EV +0.466%
Ventaja +0.148%
Kelly +0.217%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.39%31.87%31.92%33.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.752.932.933.1536.36%34.08%34.13%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.93I 34.13%NM 33.13%EV +5.50%E +1.88%K +2.85%G +0.156%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.30%EV -9.15%E -3.23%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.57%EV -4.96%E -1.66%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-03 23:25
Bet Victor2.70I 37.04%NM 34.86%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.46%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 23:25
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 23:25
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 23:25
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 23:25
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -2.79%E -1.03%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 23:25
Pinnacle2.69I 37.17%NM 35.91%EV -3.15%E -1.17%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.10%EV -3.38%E -1.12%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.99%EV -3.68%E -1.22%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-03 23:15
GTbets2.68I 37.31%NM 35.54%EV -3.51%E -1.31%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -4.34%E -1.46%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.50%EV -6.55%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 23:20
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.95%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 23:24
Codere (IT)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 23:10
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 23:14
Unibet (UK)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.65%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:10
Everygame2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -4.59%E -1.73%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 23:05
BetOnline.ag2.63I 38.02%NM 36.20%EV -5.31%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.06%EV -5.28%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 23:05
LowVig.ag2.63I 38.02%NM 36.20%EV -5.31%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.06%EV -5.28%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 23:05
BetAnything2.63I 38.02%NM 36.20%EV -5.31%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.06%EV -5.28%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-03 23:05
Bovada2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -5.31%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%EV -5.94%E -2.03%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%EV -6.55%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:09
BetUS2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -5.31%E -2.02%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%EV -5.94%E -2.03%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%EV -6.55%E -2.24%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:10
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -5.67%E -2.16%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.19%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 23:15
Marathon Bet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -5.67%E -2.16%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -6.59%E -2.26%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 23:25
BetMGM2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-03 23:05
DraftKings2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Fanatics2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 23:05
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.10%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 23:14
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.39%E -2.46%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.48%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 23:05
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -7.11%E -2.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -6.27%E -2.15%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 23:10
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.14%EV -7.11%E -2.75%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -6.27%E -2.15%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.93%EV -6.87%E -2.35%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 23:10
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 38.18%EV -8.19%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%EV +1.12%E +0.355%K +0.520%G +0.006%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%EV +0.466%E +0.148%K +0.217%G +0.001%2.7%2026-05-03 23:15
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 38.18%EV -8.19%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%EV +1.12%E +0.355%K +0.520%G +0.006%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.91%EV +0.466%E +0.148%K +0.217%G +0.001%2.7%2026-05-03 23:15
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -8.19%E -3.21%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.25%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 23:20
Bet Right2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 23:15
PointsBet (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 23:15
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.91%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 23:10
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 23:04
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -7.55%E -2.62%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.73%EV -8.15%E -2.83%K -4.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 23:10
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 23:10
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 23:15
Fliff2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.12%E -3.61%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.05%EV -10.70%E -3.82%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 23:10
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -9.99%E -3.99%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.26%EV -12.29%E -4.47%K -7.02%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 23:15
Betclic (FR)2.47I 40.49%NM 36.17%EV -11.07%E -4.48%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.49%EV -11.72%E -4.26%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 23:10
Casumo2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:15
Unibet (NL)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:15
Grosvenor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:14
Unibet (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:15
Unibet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:15
betPARX2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.09%E -0.686%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 23:15
BetRivers2.45I 40.82%NM 38.17%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.66%EV -2.72%E -0.893%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 23:14
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 35.92%EV -11.79%E -4.81%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.21%EV -14.93%E -5.64%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.88%EV -9.10%E -3.19%K -4.92%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-03 23:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%EV -12.51%E -5.15%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -3.70%E -1.23%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 23:15
LeoVegas2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -13.59%E -5.66%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -4.32%E -1.44%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 23:15
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -14.31%E -6.01%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 23:15
PMU (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -14.31%E -6.01%K -10.37%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -5.30%E -1.80%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-03 23:15
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -15.39%E -6.55%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 23:15
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 38.16%EV -15.39%E -6.55%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -6.91%E -2.38%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -7.51%E -2.59%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 23:15
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -15.39%E -6.55%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -8.51%E -2.99%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -5.91%E -2.00%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 23:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%0.5%2026-05-03 23:15
Matchbook2.82I 35.46%NM 35.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.10%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%0.5%2026-05-03 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-05-03 23:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-05-03 23:25
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.42%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.29%1.5%2026-05-03 23:25
Kalshi2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.03I 33.00%NM 32.33%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.39%2.1%2026-05-03 23:10