La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Remo

Inicio: 2026-05-02 19:00 UTC

Final: Botafogo 1–2 Remo

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 59.68%1.68momio equitativo
EV -3.92%
Ventaja -2.43%
Kelly -6.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.99%59.86%59.66%63.16%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.431.541.551.6169.93%65.09%64.52%62.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Remo (Visitante)

Predicción 16.65%6.01momio equitativo
EV +8.20%
Ventaja +1.26%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.122%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.63%16.55%16.59%18.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.705.775.656.5021.28%17.34%17.70%15.38%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.67%4.22momio equitativo
EV +2.99%
Ventaja +0.686%
Kelly +0.891%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.03%23.60%23.75%25.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.983.984.3530.30%25.11%25.13%22.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel1.54I 64.94%NM 62.86%EV -8.09%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +8.20%E +1.26%K +1.49%G +0.122%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.25%EV +2.99%E +0.686%K +0.891%G +0.027%3.3%2026-05-02 18:35
ATG (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 62.86%EV -8.09%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.89%EV +8.20%E +1.26%K +1.49%G +0.122%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.25%EV +2.99%E +0.686%K +0.891%G +0.027%3.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Coolbet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.43%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.76%EV +7.37%E +1.14%K +1.35%G +0.100%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 18:30
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Unibet (NL)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 63.16%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV +6.53%E +1.02%K +1.21%G +0.079%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV +0.618%E +0.145%K +0.190%G +0.001%6.3%2026-05-02 18:35
BetRivers1.49I 67.11%NM 62.77%EV -11.08%E -7.43%K -22.61%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.96%EV +4.04%E +0.646%K +0.769%G +0.031%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -0.566%E -0.135%K -0.177%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.08%EV -12.27%E -8.35%K -26.11%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.84%EV +4.04%E +0.646%K +0.769%G +0.031%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.08%EV -0.566%E -0.135%K -0.177%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 18:35
LeoVegas1.45I 68.97%NM 63.07%EV -13.46%E -9.29%K -29.92%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV +4.04%E +0.646%K +0.769%G +0.031%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-02 18:35
1xBet1.58I 63.29%NM 61.26%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.64%EV +3.04%E +0.491%K +0.585%G +0.018%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.10%EV -0.803%E -0.192%K -0.252%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-02 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -14.66%E -10.25%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV +1.54%E +0.252%K +0.302%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:35
PMU (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -14.66%E -10.25%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV +1.54%E +0.252%K +0.302%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:35
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -14.66%E -10.25%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV +1.54%E +0.252%K +0.302%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:35
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 63.16%EV -14.66%E -10.25%K -34.09%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.81%EV +1.54%E +0.252%K +0.302%G +0.005%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-02 18:35
Pinnacle1.60I 62.50%NM 60.32%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000%6.09I 16.42%NM 15.85%EV +1.37%E +0.226%K +0.270%G +0.004%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.83%EV -4.12%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-02 18:45
BetOnline.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.23%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.91%EV -5.77%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 18:45
LowVig.ag1.58I 63.29%NM 60.23%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.91%EV -5.77%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 18:45
BetAnything1.58I 63.29%NM 60.23%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.91%EV -5.77%E -1.45%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 18:45
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.09%EV -6.30%E -4.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 18:50
Everygame1.55I 64.52%NM 60.39%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 18:39
FanDuel1.53I 65.36%NM 60.71%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 18:34
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.18%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.29%EV -0.125%E -0.021%K -0.025%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 18:29
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.39%EV -6.30%E -4.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -4.29%E -0.745%K -0.902%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-02 18:35
DraftKings1.59I 62.89%NM 59.56%EV -5.11%E -3.21%K -8.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.47%EV -4.29%E -0.745%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.97%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 18:40
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 60.02%EV -6.90%E -4.42%K -12.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -4.29%E -0.745%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 18:53
BetUS1.56I 64.10%NM 60.02%EV -6.90%E -4.42%K -12.32%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -4.29%E -0.745%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 18:55
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 60.17%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.51%EV -5.95%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 18:55
GTbets1.55I 64.52%NM 59.91%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.46%EV -6.12%E -1.08%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 23.63%EV -6.96%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-02 18:39
BetMGM1.61I 62.11%NM 58.99%EV -3.92%E -2.43%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 18:40
Coral1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 18:40
Bet Victor1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -6.30%E -4.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -2.93%E -0.715%K -0.946%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 18:48
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.44%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 18:45
Betway1.60I 62.50%NM 58.41%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 18:35
PointsBet (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -6.30%E -4.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:55
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 59.57%EV -6.90%E -4.42%K -12.32%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.53%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 18:55
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 18:55
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 18:55
William Hill1.55I 64.52%NM 59.18%EV -7.50%E -4.84%K -13.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 18:55
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:55
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:55
BoyleSports1.53I 65.36%NM 59.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.40%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:55
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 59.59%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.40%E -3.35%K -4.59%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 18:49
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 59.19%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -8.45%E -1.54%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -14.77%E -4.10%K -5.68%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 18:35
Codere (IT)1.59I 62.89%NM 59.10%EV -5.11%E -3.21%K -8.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.40%EV -10.11%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.49%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 18:45
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -10.11%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 18:45
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 59.08%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -10.11%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.63%EV -6.48%E -1.64%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 18:45
Neds1.58I 63.29%NM 58.90%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -10.11%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 58.90%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -10.11%E -1.87%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -7.67%E -1.97%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 18:40
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 58.43%EV -5.71%E -3.61%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.59%EV -12.61%E -2.40%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -8.85%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 18:56
Betclic (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 58.82%EV -9.29%E -6.11%K -17.86%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.53%EV -15.11%E -2.96%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.65%EV -10.51%E -2.78%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-02 18:44
Unibet (FR)1.51I 66.23%NM 59.05%EV -9.88%E -6.55%K -19.38%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.48%EV -15.11%E -2.96%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-02 18:45
Winamax (DE)1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.09%E -5.26%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -16.77%E -3.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -5.30%E -1.33%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 18:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 56.99%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.10%EV -16.77%E -3.35%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.91%EV -21.87%E -6.63%K -9.51%G +0.000%17.0%2026-05-02 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 58.35%EV -10.48%E -6.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.62%EV -21.76%E -4.63%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.03%EV -10.04%E -2.64%K -3.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-02 18:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.61I 62.11%NM 62.05%6.67I 14.99%NM 14.98%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.97%0.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Matchbook1.62I 61.73%NM 61.31%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.05%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.65%0.7%2026-05-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.45%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.56%1.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.45%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.56%1.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.61I 62.11%NM 61.45%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.56%1.1%2026-05-02 18:55
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 60.82%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%2.1%2026-05-02 18:55