La escuela de los momios

Botafogo v Internacional

Inicio: 2026-04-25 21:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Botafogo (Local)

Predicción 36.65%2.73momio equitativo
EV -1.42%
Ventaja -0.527%
Kelly -0.839%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.40%36.66%36.87%38.84%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.332.502.502.6942.92%39.93%40.00%37.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Internacional (Visitante)

Predicción 32.75%3.05momio equitativo
EV +3.15%
Ventaja +1.000%
Kelly +1.46%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.82%32.73%32.71%33.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.872.883.1538.46%34.80%34.72%31.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.61%3.27momio equitativo
EV -2.06%
Ventaja -0.644%
Kelly -0.936%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.04%30.61%30.43%32.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.043.023.2035.71%32.95%33.11%31.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV +3.15%E +1.000%K +1.46%G +0.046%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-24 01:45
Svenska Spel2.50I 40.00%NM 38.84%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV +3.15%E +1.000%K +1.46%G +0.046%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.34%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-24 01:45
Unibet (NL)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:45
Casumo2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:45
Grosvenor2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:44
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:45
Unibet2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:45
betPARX2.43I 41.15%NM 38.75%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -0.126%E -0.041%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:45
BetRivers2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -10.95%E -4.50%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-24 01:45
LeoVegas (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.66%EV -12.05%E -5.02%K -8.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -1.76%E -0.588%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.42%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-24 01:45
1xBet2.69I 37.17%NM 35.72%EV -1.42%E -0.527%K -0.839%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.25%EV -2.42%E -0.811%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.03%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-24 03:15
GTbets2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -4.72%E -1.81%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.03%EV -3.07%E -1.04%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.50%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-23 22:20
LeoVegas2.38I 42.02%NM 38.65%EV -12.78%E -5.37%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.18%EV -3.40%E -1.15%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 01:45
PMU (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -13.88%E -5.91%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -3.40%E -1.15%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-24 01:45
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 38.76%EV -13.88%E -5.91%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -3.40%E -1.15%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.36%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-24 01:45
Pinnacle2.67I 37.45%NM 35.77%EV -2.15%E -0.805%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.60%EV -4.06%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.63%EV -7.57%E -2.51%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 22:14
BetOnline.ag2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -2.52%E -0.946%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.62%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 22:19
LowVig.ag2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -2.52%E -0.946%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.62%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 22:19
BetAnything2.66I 37.59%NM 35.78%EV -2.52%E -0.946%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.60%EV -4.38%E -1.50%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.62%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 22:20
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 36.83%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.38%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -6.65%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:20
Fanatics2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 22:19
Ladbrokes (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 06:34
Neds2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 06:34
Tipico (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -10.21%E -4.17%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 22:15
LiveScore Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 38.76%EV -14.61%E -6.27%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-24 01:45
Virgin Bet2.33I 42.92%NM 38.76%EV -14.61%E -6.27%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -5.04%E -1.74%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-24 01:45
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 12:08
Betway2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -4.72%E -1.81%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.60%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.29%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 22:49
Bovada2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -3.62%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -9.71%E -3.29%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 22:23
BetUS2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -3.62%E -1.37%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.56%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.79%EV -9.71%E -3.29%K -4.98%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 22:19
Marathon Bet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -3.98%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.37%EV -5.69%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -10.94%E -3.76%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.35%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.53%EV -6.02%E -2.10%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 12:09
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.35%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.53%EV -6.02%E -2.10%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 12:09
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.70%EV -4.72%E -1.81%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.48%EV -6.67%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 01:50
Codere (IT)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.67%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-24 03:00
Unibet (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.67%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-24 02:55
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -3.98%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -7.66%E -2.72%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.79%E -2.95%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:20
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.61%EV -3.98%E -1.52%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.08%EV -7.66%E -2.72%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.31%EV -8.79%E -2.95%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 22:14
SportsBet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:50
FanDuel2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-24 01:48
Bet Right2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 01:49
PointsBet (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-24 01:49
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-24 01:49
PlayUp2.60I 38.46%NM 35.40%EV -4.72%E -1.81%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 22:19
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -6.55%E -2.57%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 22:19
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 23:00
William Hill2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 23:00
888sport (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 22:59
Mr Green (SE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -8.31%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 23:00
Bet Victor2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -2.06%E -0.644%K -0.936%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-24 01:44
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 01:50
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -5.12%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-24 01:50
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.72%EV -13.88%E -5.91%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.23%EV -9.95%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -9.71%E -3.29%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-24 02:54
Betclic (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.14%EV -12.05%E -5.02%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.65%EV -10.60%E -3.88%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.21%EV -9.71%E -3.29%K -4.98%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-24 02:53
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -10.21%E -4.17%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-24 01:50
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.38%E -3.35%K -5.59%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 22:19
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -12.05%E -5.02%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.18%E -2.73%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-24 02:55
Winamax (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 36.84%EV -13.88%E -5.91%K -10.28%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -14.86%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.86%EV -11.24%E -3.88%K -5.92%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-24 02:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.97%EV -12.05%E -5.02%K -8.60%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%EV -14.86%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.83%EV -14.30%E -5.11%K -7.95%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-24 01:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.66I 37.59%NM 37.36%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%0.6%2026-04-24 02:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-04-24 02:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-04-24 02:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.64I 37.88%NM 37.54%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.97%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-04-24 02:25
Smarkets2.62I 38.17%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.08%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.58%2.2%2026-04-24 02:55
Kalshi2.56I 39.06%NM 37.55%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.69%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.76%4.0%2026-04-24 02:20