Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Central Coast Mariners v Perth Glory

Inicio: 2026-04-04 06:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Central Coast Mariners (Local)

Predicción 35.94%2.78momio equitativo
EV -0.458%
Ventaja -0.165%
Kelly -0.259%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.77

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.96%35.90%36.01%39.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.532.602.7744.44%39.55%38.46%36.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Perth Glory (Visitante)

Predicción 37.81%2.65momio equitativo
EV +5.86%
Ventaja +2.09%
Kelly +3.25%
Crecimiento +0.191%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.25%37.78%37.78%38.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.532.502.8043.48%39.47%40.00%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.26%3.81momio equitativo
EV -2.32%
Ventaja -0.623%
Kelly -0.852%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.13%26.32%26.21%27.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.543.553.7230.30%28.29%28.17%26.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Central Coast Mariners (Local): 35.94%; Perth Glory (Visitante): 37.81%; Empate: 26.26%. Para Perth Glory (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.65. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.47%EV -12.68%E -5.22%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.25%EV +5.86%E +2.09%K +3.25%G +0.191%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.28%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-04 05:54
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -13.75%E -5.73%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +3.97%E +1.44%K +2.27%G +0.090%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 05:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -13.75%E -5.73%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +3.97%E +1.44%K +2.27%G +0.090%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 05:54
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV +3.97%E +1.44%K +2.27%G +0.090%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 05:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:54
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:54
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:55
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:55
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.19%EV -14.47%E -6.08%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV +2.08%E +0.769%K +1.22%G +0.025%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.35%EV -17.35%E -7.54%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.41%EV -0.571%E -0.217%K -0.350%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 05:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.35%EV -17.35%E -7.54%K -13.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.41%EV -0.571%E -0.217%K -0.350%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-04 05:54
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -1.71%E -0.656%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 05:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.58%EV -2.84%E -1.10%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.97%EV -2.32%E -0.623%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 05:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.58%EV -2.84%E -1.10%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.97%EV -2.32%E -0.623%K -0.852%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 05:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -19.14%E -8.51%K -15.32%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.68%EV -3.60%E -1.41%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 05:55
Pinnacle🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.96%EV -0.458%E -0.165%K -0.259%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.28%EV -4.35%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.75%EV -4.94%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-04 05:45
GTbets🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.94%EV -5.49%E -2.09%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.36%EV -4.35%E -1.72%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.70%EV -7.04%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 05:50
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.05%EV -1.18%E -0.428%K -0.672%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.55%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-04 05:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 05:49
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.63%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.77%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 05:45
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.03%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.76%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.22%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 05:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 05:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 05:55
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 05:44
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 05:54
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -13.35%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 05:55
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -13.35%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 05:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -13.35%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 05:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -5.49%E -2.19%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -13.35%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 05:54
BetUS🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.33%EV -4.41%E -1.66%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.20%EV -7.00%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 05:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.91%EV -7.00%E -2.84%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.57%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 05:54
Bovada🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.10%EV -3.69%E -1.38%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 05:51
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.36%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.25%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-04 05:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 05:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 05:44
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 05:45
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 05:44
Everygame🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -4.77%E -1.80%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 05:50
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.57%E -2.53%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 05:55
Bet Right🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -11.96%E -4.88%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.44%EV -7.38%E -3.01%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 05:54
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.45%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -8.51%E -3.52%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 05:44
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.45%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.38%EV -8.51%E -3.52%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 05:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -9.27%E -3.86%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-04 05:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -5.85%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.73%EV -10.40%E -4.39%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 05:49
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.86%EV -10.16%E -4.06%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -11.16%E -4.75%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.99%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-04 05:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.38%EV -13.75%E -5.73%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.16%EV -11.16%E -4.75%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.46%EV -13.35%E -4.04%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-04 05:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.51%EV -13.75%E -5.73%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.10%EV -13.05%E -5.67%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -9.41%E -2.73%K -3.84%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-04 05:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.79%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.68%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%0.5%2026-04-04 05:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.22%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-04-04 05:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.22%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47%0.8%2026-04-04 05:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.59%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46%0.8%2026-04-04 05:50
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.12%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.51%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.36%2.5%2026-04-04 05:55
Kalshi2.63I 38.02%NM 36.18%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.17%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.65%5.1%2026-04-04 05:50