Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Newells Old Boys v Banfield

Início: 2026-08-23 00:00 UTC

Final: Newells Old Boys 2–1 Banfield

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

37 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Newells Old Boys (Local)

Previsão 44.00%2.27odd justa
EV +0.309%
Vantagem +0.135%
Kelly +0.241%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.28

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.09%43.82%44.04%46.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.112.102.2851.28%47.28%47.62%43.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Banfield (Visitante)

Previsão 25.51%3.92odd justa
EV +14.53%
Vantagem +3.24%
Kelly +4.16%
Crescimento +0.605%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.49

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.36%25.62%25.50%28.96%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.053.603.604.4932.79%27.82%27.78%22.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 30.50%3.28odd justa
EV -2.72%
Vantagem -0.851%
Kelly -1.24%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.19

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.52%30.56%30.46%32.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.033.003.1935.09%33.05%33.33%31.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Newells Old Boys (Local): 44.00%; Banfield (Visitante): 25.51%; Empate: 30.50%. Para Banfield (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.92. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.49, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +14.53%.

Odds das casas de apostas (37 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.12%EV -8.49%E -4.08%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.36%EV +14.53%E +3.24%K +4.16%G +0.605%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.52%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-22 23:54
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.58%EV -6.73%E -3.17%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +0.757%E +0.192%K +0.257%G +0.002%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 23:50
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.58%EV -6.73%E -3.17%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV +0.757%E +0.192%K +0.257%G +0.002%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-22 23:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.52%EV -4.53%E -2.09%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV -1.79%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.38%EV -3.02%E -0.950%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 23:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.52%EV -4.53%E -2.09%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV -1.79%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.38%EV -3.02%E -0.950%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 23:55
BetAnything🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.52%EV -4.53%E -2.09%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV -1.79%E -0.466%K -0.629%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.38%EV -3.02%E -0.950%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-22 23:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -3.07%E -0.808%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-22 23:55
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -3.21%E -1.46%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.62%EV -3.58%E -0.947%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.36%EV -2.72%E -0.851%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-22 23:50
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.24%EV -6.73%E -3.17%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -4.34%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.75%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-22 23:50
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -4.34%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 23:55
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.34%E -1.16%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-22 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.43%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -5.11%E -1.37%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.49%EV -6.68%E -2.18%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 23:54
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.18%EV -5.41%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-22 23:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.52%EV -4.53%E -2.09%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.96%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 23:55
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 23:50
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.29%EV -5.41%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-22 23:55
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.62%E -1.52%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-22 23:54
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -5.41%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 23:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-22 23:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 23:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 23:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.93%EV -14.21%E -7.29%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.33%EV -8.17%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.74%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-22 23:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.33%EV -9.96%E -2.82%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.05%EV -12.17%E -4.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 23:53
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-22 23:55
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.51%E -2.84%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-22 23:49
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-22 23:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.46%EV -12.01%E -6.00%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.72%E -3.06%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.14%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-22 23:54
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -12.00%E -3.48%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 23:50
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.61%E -3.62%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -5.46%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-22 23:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.95%EV -9.81%E -4.79%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-22 23:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.52%EV -11.13%E -5.51%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.27%E -3.90%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.63%EV -12.47%E -4.35%K -6.67%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-22 23:54
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV +0.309%E +0.135%K +0.241%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -17.10%E -5.26%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 23:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.23%EV +0.309%E +0.135%K +0.241%G +0.001%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.93%EV -17.10%E -5.26%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-22 23:45
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.19%EV -1.89%E -0.848%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -18.37%E -5.74%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.11%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -5.41%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -22.20%E -7.28%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 23:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.09%EV -5.41%E -2.52%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.96%EV -22.20%E -7.28%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.95%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.15%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-22 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 41.22%EV -6.73%E -3.17%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -22.20%E -7.28%K -10.83%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.13%EV -11.56%E -3.99%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-22 23:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-08-22 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-08-22 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.91%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.70%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.40%1.2%2026-08-22 23:55
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.17%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.0%2026-08-22 23:55
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.51%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%3.3%2026-08-22 23:55