语言:简体中文
Wales v Italy
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Wales (主队)
预测 39.26%2.55公平赔率
EV -1.86%
优势 -0.745%
Kelly -1.24%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 2.50
博彩公司预测分布
37.44%39.16%39.29%40.56%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.252.352.382.5044.44%42.48%42.11%40.00%最小值均值中位数最大值
Italy (客队)
预测 56.69%1.76公平赔率
EV -5.34%
优势 -3.20%
Kelly -7.96%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.67
博彩公司预测分布
55.39%56.68%56.65%58.49%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.591.631.621.6762.89%61.54%61.92%59.88%最小值均值中位数最大值
平局
预测 4.06%24.63公平赔率
EV +5.55%
优势 +0.214%
Kelly +0.222%
增长率 +0.012%
假设最高赔率为 26.00
博彩公司预测分布
3.57%4.16%4.06%5.12%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
18.0021.9422.0026.005.56%4.56%4.55%3.85%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Wales (主队)：39.26%；Italy (客队)：56.69%；平局：4.06%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为24.63。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为26.00，对应+5.55%的正期望值。
有 12 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (18 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 平局 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 40.53%EV -10.11%E -4.41%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.91%EV -5.90%E -3.56%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +5.55%E +0.214%K +0.222%G +0.012% | 7.8% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%EV -7.75%E -3.30%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.77%EV -7.60%E -4.66%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.86%EV -2.57%E -0.107%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 16:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.68%E -5.19%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.64%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.80%EV -2.57%E -0.107%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -11.68%E -5.19%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.64%EV -7.04%E -4.29%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.80%EV -2.57%E -0.107%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 39.93%EV -10.89%E -4.80%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.30%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 24.00I 4.17%NM 3.78%EV -2.57%E -0.107%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-14 16:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.44%EV -1.86%E -0.745%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.49%EV -9.30%E -5.81%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV -6.63%E -0.288%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%EV -9.71%E -4.22%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.60%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.04%EV -6.63%E -0.288%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 16:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.87%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.11%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -6.63%E -0.288%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.64%EV -9.87%E -6.21%K -16.73%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV -10.69%E -0.486%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.19%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.64%EV -9.87%E -6.21%K -16.73%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV -10.69%E -0.486%K -0.509%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.49%EV -6.97%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -14.75%E -0.702%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.49%EV -6.97%E -2.94%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -5.34%E -3.20%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV -14.75%E -0.702%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.59%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.04%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.75%E -0.702%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.59%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.04%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.75%E -0.702%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 12:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.59%EV -6.57%E -2.76%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.04%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.37%EV -14.75%E -0.702%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 12:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -11.68%E -5.19%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.39%EV -8.17%E -5.04%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.72%EV -22.87%E -1.20%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.62%EV -3.82%E -1.56%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.25%EV -8.74%E -5.43%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV -26.93%E -1.50%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -5.79%E -2.41%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -9.30%E -5.81%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -26.93%E -1.50%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 05:28 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (5)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 平局 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.04% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.11% | 0.6% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.26% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.43% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.26% | 30.00I 3.33%NM 3.31% | 0.7% | 2026-03-14 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.41% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50% | 32.00I 3.13%NM 3.09% | 1.0% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.86% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.86% | 30.03I 3.33%NM 3.28% | 1.5% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (12)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01% | 3.9% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52% | 4.8% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19% | 5.5% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07% | 5.7% | 2026-03-14 16:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 23:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25% | 5.7% | 2026-03-12 23:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 20:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 20:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 16:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.21% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.79% | 7.2% | 2026-03-12 23:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 14:15 |