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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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France v Italy

开赛时间： 2026-02-22 15:10 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

16 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

France (主队)

预测 90.77%1.10公平赔率
EV -6.51%
优势 -6.32%
Kelly -217.02%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.03

博彩公司预测分布
88.76%90.60%90.95%93.34%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.001.021.021.03100.00%98.40%98.04%97.09%最小值均值中位数最大值

Italy (客队)

预测 7.14%14.00公平赔率
EV +42.82%
优势 +2.14%
Kelly +2.25%
增长率 +0.965%

假设最高赔率为 20.00

博彩公司预测分布
4.76%7.22%7.11%8.31%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
11.0013.6313.0020.009.09%7.34%7.69%5.00%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 2.09%47.78公平赔率
EV +40.22%
优势 +0.600%
Kelly +0.609%
增长率 +0.245%

假设最高赔率为 67.00

博彩公司预测分布
1.42%2.18%1.94%3.09%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
29.0046.7550.5067.003.45%2.14%1.98%1.49%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：France (主队)：90.77%；Italy (客队)：7.14%；平局：2.09%。 对于“Italy (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为14.00。 当时有5家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为20.00，对应+42.82%的正期望值。

有 11 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (16 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
1xBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.34%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +42.82%E +2.14%K +2.25%G +0.965%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.90%EV +4.64%E +0.093%K +0.095%G +0.004%5.0%2026-02-22 00:25
SportsBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.29%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +28.54%E +1.59%K +1.68%G +0.479%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.42%EV +40.22%E +0.600%K +0.609%G +0.245%5.1%2026-02-22 00:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.21%EV -6.51%E -6.32%K -217.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +7.11%E +0.474%K +0.508%G +0.036%65.00I 1.54%NM 1.46%EV +36.03%E +0.554%K +0.563%G +0.203%5.3%2026-02-22 05:59
William Hill🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.91%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV +7.11%E +0.474%K +0.508%G +0.036%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.84%EV +6.73%E +0.132%K +0.135%G +0.009%6.7%2026-02-21 22:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.97%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.47%EV +3.54%E +0.244%K +0.262%G +0.009%60.00I 1.67%NM 1.56%EV +25.57%E +0.426%K +0.433%G +0.111%6.6%2026-02-22 00:24
Betway🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.04%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +6.73%E +0.132%K +0.135%G +0.009%7.7%2026-02-22 00:05
Coral🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.12%EV -8.33%E -8.24%K -832.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.80%EV +6.73%E +0.132%K +0.135%G +0.009%8.7%2026-02-20 16:00
888sport🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.30%EV -8.33%E -8.24%K -832.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.68%EV -28.84%E -0.848%K -0.874%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 00:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.30%EV -8.33%E -8.24%K -832.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.68%EV -28.84%E -0.848%K -0.874%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 00:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.30%EV -8.33%E -8.24%K -832.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.02%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.68%EV -28.84%E -0.848%K -0.874%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 00:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 90.07%EV -9.23%E -9.23%K +0.000%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -7.17%E -0.551%K -0.597%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.00%EV -37.22%E -1.24%K -1.28%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-20 05:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.78%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -10.74%E -0.859%K -0.934%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.82%EV +6.73%E +0.132%K +0.135%G +0.009%8.0%2026-02-22 01:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.50%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -14.31%E -1.19%K -1.30%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.81%EV +6.73%E +0.132%K +0.135%G +0.009%8.3%2026-02-20 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.65%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -21.45%E -1.95%K -2.14%G +0.000%45.00I 2.22%NM 2.03%EV -5.82%E -0.129%K -0.132%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 00:04
Betsson🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.65%EV -7.42%E -7.27%K -370.92%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.31%EV -21.45%E -1.95%K -2.14%G +0.000%45.00I 2.22%NM 2.03%EV -5.82%E -0.129%K -0.132%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 00:05
Coolbet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 88.76%EV -8.33%E -8.24%K -832.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.15%EV -21.45%E -1.95%K -2.14%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.09%EV -39.31%E -1.36%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-22 00:05
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%150.00I 0.67%NM 0.66%1.1%2026-02-22 02:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%150.00I 0.67%NM 0.66%1.1%2026-02-22 02:15
Matchbook◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%150.00I 0.67%NM 0.66%1.1%2026-02-22 02:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 95.89%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.41%140.00I 0.71%NM 0.71%1.2%2026-02-22 06:00
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 95.82%28.01I 3.57%NM 3.52%149.25I 0.67%NM 0.66%1.3%2026-02-22 02:15

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (11)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2利润率 ▲更新时间
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%2.9%2026-02-20 05:35
PlayUp🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%3.3%2026-02-22 00:09
Casumo🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%4.8%2026-02-21 22:45
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%4.8%2026-02-21 22:45
Unibet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%4.8%2026-02-21 22:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%4.8%2026-02-21 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.88%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.12%5.5%2026-02-21 19:55
Neds🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%5.7%2026-02-21 21:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%5.7%2026-02-21 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%5.8%2026-02-21 22:45
TABtouch🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%7.1%2026-02-21 22:44