默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

TPS v Lukko

开赛时间： 2026-03-04 16:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

19 家博彩公司 (6 家纳入分析 )

42%

58%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

TPS (主队)

预测 41.75%2.40公平赔率

EV -0.630%

优势 -0.265%

Kelly -0.456%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.38

博彩公司预测分布

39.90%41.68%41.80%44.30%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.102.242.202.3847.62%44.66%45.45%42.02%最小值均值中位数最大值

Lukko (客队)

预测 58.25%1.72公平赔率

EV -1.56%

优势 -0.924%

Kelly -2.26%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.69

博彩公司预测分布

55.70%58.32%58.20%60.10%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.581.641.651.6963.29%60.94%60.61%59.17%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：TPS (主队)：41.75%；Lukko (客队)：58.25%。对于“TPS (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.40。当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.38，期望值为-0.630%，未产生正期望值。

有 17 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (19 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	利润率	更新时间
Betsson🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -0.630%E -0.265%K -0.456%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -7.97%E -5.04%K -13.74%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 10:45
NordicBet🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -0.630%E -0.265%K -0.456%G +0.000%	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -7.97%E -5.04%K -13.74%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 10:44
BetRivers🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.88%E -0.801%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-04 12:44
Bally Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.88%E -0.801%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-04 13:05
betPARX🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -1.88%E -0.801%K -1.39%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.80%E -4.25%K -11.34%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-04 13:05
DraftKings🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.97%E -1.73%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-03-04 11:00
Pinnacle🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.81%E -2.11%K -3.75%G +0.000%	1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.47%E -2.73%K -6.99%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-04 16:00
theScore Bet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -6.06%E -2.69%K -4.85%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.56%E -0.924%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-04 10:45
888sport🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 14:30
William Hill🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 14:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-04 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-04 14:55
Bovada🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-04 13:04
Paddy Power🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.15%E -3.70%K -6.79%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.64%E -3.48%K -9.09%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-04 10:43
Coral🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-04 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.23%E -4.76%K -8.90%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.89%E -2.36%K -5.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-04 10:45
Neds🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -12.32%E -5.87%K -11.20%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-02 20:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -12.32%E -5.87%K -11.20%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -2.73%E -1.63%K -4.07%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-02 20:14

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Smarkets◎	2.16I 46.30%NM 42.71%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.29%	8.4%	2026-03-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 30.15%	1.01I 99.01%NM 69.85%	41.7%	2026-03-04 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.34I 42.74%NM 30.15%	1.01I 99.01%NM 69.85%	41.7%	2026-03-04 14:55

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (17)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	选项 3	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Coolbet🎯	3.45I 28.99%NM 28.09%	2.06I 48.54%NM 47.05%	3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%	3.2%	2026-03-04 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%	3.2%	2026-03-04 15:54
Svenska Spel🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%	3.2%	2026-03-04 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%	2.05I 48.78%NM 47.27%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%	3.2%	2026-03-04 15:54
Unibet (UK)🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.68%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%	5.3%	2026-03-04 14:30
1xBet🎯	3.04I 32.89%NM 30.94%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.11%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%	6.3%	2026-03-04 15:54
Unibet (NL)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.42%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%	7.0%	2026-03-04 15:54
Unibet (SE)🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.42%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%	7.0%	2026-03-04 15:54
Casumo🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.42%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%	7.0%	2026-03-04 15:55
Grosvenor🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.42%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%	7.0%	2026-03-04 15:55
LeoVegas🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%	9.7%	2026-03-04 15:55
Betway🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%	10.1%	2026-03-04 14:29
Winamax (DE)🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%	1.98I 50.51%NM 45.67%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%	10.6%	2026-03-04 14:30
Everygame🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%	3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%	10.7%	2026-03-04 15:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 31.32%	1.95I 51.28%NM 44.98%	3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%	14.0%	2026-03-04 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 31.29%	1.93I 51.81%NM 45.07%	3.68I 27.17%NM 23.64%	15.0%	2026-03-04 14:29
Winamax (FR)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 31.84%	1.90I 52.63%NM 45.24%	3.75I 26.67%NM 22.92%	16.3%	2026-03-04 14:29