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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Lukko v Ilves

开赛时间： 2026-09-01 15:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

18 家博彩公司 (5 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Lukko (主队)

预测 40.23%2.49公平赔率
EV -3.45%
优势 -1.44%
Kelly -2.46%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.40

博彩公司预测分布
39.44%40.37%40.20%41.77%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.152.292.302.4046.51%43.76%43.48%41.67%最小值均值中位数最大值

Ilves (客队)

预测 35.11%2.85公平赔率
EV +1.10%
优势 +0.383%
Kelly +0.587%
增长率 +0.006%

假设最高赔率为 2.88

博彩公司预测分布
33.62%35.05%35.23%36.75%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.402.672.652.8841.67%37.41%37.74%34.72%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 24.67%4.05公平赔率
EV +1.13%
优势 +0.275%
Kelly +0.364%
增长率 +0.004%

假设最高赔率为 4.10

博彩公司预测分布
22.86%24.58%24.57%25.44%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.503.773.754.1028.57%26.55%26.67%24.39%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Lukko (主队)：40.23%；Ilves (客队)：35.11%；平局：24.67%。 对于“平局”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为4.05。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为4.10，对应+1.13%的正期望值。

有 15 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (18 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.91%EV -4.25%E -1.79%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81%EV +1.10%E +0.383%K +0.587%G +0.006%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.29%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-01 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.91%EV -4.25%E -1.79%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81%EV +1.10%E +0.383%K +0.587%G +0.006%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.29%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-01 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.91%EV -4.25%E -1.79%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.81%EV +1.10%E +0.383%K +0.587%G +0.006%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.29%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.7%2026-09-01 11:50
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.46%EV -3.45%E -1.44%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.31%EV -0.651%E -0.230%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -5.04%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 07:10
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -1.70%E -0.609%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -1.70%E -0.609%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 11:50
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -1.70%E -0.609%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -1.70%E -0.609%K -0.947%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -8.74%E -2.36%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-01 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.17%EV -5.46%E -2.32%K -4.05%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -3.81%E -0.976%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 14:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.77%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -3.81%E -0.976%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.90%EV -12.70%E -5.85%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.74%EV -7.67%E -2.92%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.36%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 11:50
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.47%E -3.25%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -8.73%E -3.36%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-01 14:45
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.39%EV -6.67%E -2.87%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.75%EV -10.48%E -4.11%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%EV +1.13%E +0.275%K +0.364%G +0.004%6.7%2026-09-01 15:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.44%EV -9.48%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.21%EV -11.53%E -4.58%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -13.67%E -3.91%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.91%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -12.24%E -4.89%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.08%EV -3.81%E -0.976%K -1.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 14:45
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.48%E -4.22%K -7.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -12.24%E -4.89%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -7.51%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 14:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.99%EV -11.50%E -5.23%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.91%EV -13.99%E -5.71%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.10%EV -9.97%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-01 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.24%EV -13.51%E -6.28%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.05%EV -15.75%E -6.56%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.71%EV -9.97%E -2.73%K -3.76%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-01 14:45
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (15)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85%1.5%2026-09-01 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.15%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.85%1.5%2026-09-01 15:25
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.17%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.83%2.5%2026-09-01 15:25
NordicBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-09-01 15:10
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-09-01 10:34
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%4.7%2026-09-01 04:49
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%4.8%2026-09-01 14:45
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%5.2%2026-09-01 12:55
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%5.4%2026-09-01 09:35
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%5.4%2026-09-01 09:35
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%5.4%2026-09-01 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-30 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-30 15:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-08-30 20:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%6.8%2026-09-01 14:45