Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xander Zayas v Jaron Ennis

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 04:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Xander Zayas (Local)

Prediction 20.55%4.87fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.361%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%20.97%20.44%24.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.544.674.8026.32%22.04%21.41%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jaron Ennis (Visit)

Prediction 79.45%1.26fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -13.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.70%79.03%79.56%80.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2286.96%84.44%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Xander Zayas (Local): 20.55%; Jaron Ennis (Visit): 79.45%. For Xander Zayas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.80, with an expected value of -1.37%; they did not produce positive expected value.

24 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -1.37%E -0.286%K -0.361%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.45%E -4.58%K -28.69%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-27 00:39
NordicBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.37%E -0.286%K -0.361%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.63%E -7.50%K -57.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-24 09:00
Betsson🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.37%E -0.286%K -0.361%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -8.63%E -7.50%K -57.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-24 09:00
BetUS🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -2.40%E -0.505%K -0.640%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 02:49
BetOnline.ag🎯4.74I 21.10%NM 19.93%EV -2.60%E -0.549%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.07%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 02:49
LowVig.ag🎯4.74I 21.10%NM 19.93%EV -2.60%E -0.549%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.07%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-28 02:49
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.43%E -0.729%K -0.926%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 03:30
BetRivers🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.43%E -0.729%K -0.926%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 22:20
betPARX🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.43%E -0.729%K -0.926%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 22:20
Bally Bet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -3.43%E -0.729%K -0.926%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-27 22:20
Pinnacle🎯4.67I 21.41%NM 20.44%EV -4.04%E -0.866%K -1.10%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.56%EV -4.66%E -3.88%K -23.29%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-28 03:06
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -5.48%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.66%E -3.88%K -23.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-28 03:20
PlayUp🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -5.48%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.04%E -6.02%K -41.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-24 09:00
theScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -7.54%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.66%E -3.88%K -23.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-22 20:20
FanDuel🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -7.54%E -1.67%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-28 03:00
BetAnything🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -9.59%E -2.18%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.25%E -5.29%K -34.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-27 21:40
Betr (AU)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.48%EV -10.62%E -2.44%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.52%EV -5.45%E -4.58%K -28.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 22:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -12.67%E -2.98%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -3.86%E -3.19%K -18.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-27 23:20
Winamax (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -13.70%E -3.26%K -4.28%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -8.63%E -7.50%K -57.53%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-27 00:39
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -17.81%E -4.45%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.07%E -2.51%K -13.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 17:38
Betclic (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -21.92%E -5.77%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -3.07%E -2.51%K -13.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-18 01:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.94%11.0%2026-05-01 00:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (24)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.10%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.34%4.1%2026-06-28 03:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.10%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.34%4.1%2026-06-28 03:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.01%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%4.7%2026-06-28 03:30
SportsBet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.11%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.43%8.2%2026-06-28 03:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.41%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%9.0%2026-06-27 17:39
Coral🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.41%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%9.0%2026-06-27 17:39
PMU (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
Unibet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:19
LeoVegas🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
TABtouch🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
Grosvenor🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:19
Virgin Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:19
Unibet (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
Svenska Spel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
Unibet (NL)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.00%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%9.6%2026-06-27 22:20
Betway🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%10.0%2026-06-25 14:29
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.1%2026-06-27 20:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%1.22I 81.97%NM 74.47%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%10.1%2026-06-27 20:29
1xBet🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.59%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.75%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%10.4%2026-06-27 05:09
Everygame🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.73%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.26%11.9%2026-06-23 07:08
888sport🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.90%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.26%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.85%14.0%2026-06-24 09:00