Language:English
Lenar Perez v Thabiso Mchunu
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lenar Perez (Local)
assuming max odds 1.06
Thabiso Mchunu (Visit)
assuming max odds 13.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lenar Perez (Local): 89.79%; Thabiso Mchunu (Visit): 10.21%. For Thabiso Mchunu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.80. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +32.70%.
5 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.51%E -7.29%K -250.45%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +32.70%E +2.52%K +2.72%G +0.891% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.51%E -7.29%K -250.45%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +32.70%E +2.52%K +2.72%G +0.891% | 4.8% | 2026-09-03 18:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.62%E -6.36%K -165.39%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +12.28%E +1.12%K +1.23%G +0.151% | 5.2% | 2026-09-03 18:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -6.62%E -6.36%K -165.39%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +7.18%E +0.684%K +0.755%G +0.054% | 5.7% | 2026-09-03 14:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.03%E -0.319%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 23:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.33%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -3.03%E -0.319%K -0.356%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-03 10:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.72%E -5.45%K -114.35%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -13.24%E -1.56%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-03 23:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.43%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.33%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.57%EV -17.32%E -2.14%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 00:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.33%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -26.51%E -3.68%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-02 07:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.17%EV -4.82%E -4.55%K -80.33%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.83%EV -26.51%E -3.68%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-02 07:44 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (5)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.25% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 00:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 00:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.36% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 00:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.90% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.33% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.77% | 10.4% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 85.58% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.56% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 4.86% | 11.3% | 2026-09-03 09:50 |