默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Vanderbilt Commodores v Memphis Tigers

2026-11-11 00:15 UTC — NCAAB

胜负盘

19 家博彩公司 (7 家纳入分析 )

91%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Vanderbilt Commodores (主队)

预测 91.29%1.10公平赔率

EV -3.24%

优势 -3.05%

Kelly -53.96%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.06

博彩公司预测分布

89.46%91.13%91.21%91.95%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.041.051.051.0696.15%95.48%95.24%94.34%最小值均值中位数最大值

Memphis Tigers (客队)

预测 8.71%11.47公平赔率

EV +4.58%

优势 +0.382%

Kelly +0.416%

增长率 +0.019%

假设最高赔率为 12.00

博彩公司预测分布

8.05%8.87%8.79%10.54%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

9.0010.0410.0012.0011.11%9.96%10.00%8.33%最小值均值中位数最大值

对于胜负盘，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)估计各选项的概率为：Vanderbilt Commodores (主队)：91.29%；Memphis Tigers (客队)：8.71%。对于“Memphis Tigers (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为11.47。有3家博彩公司提供高于该水平的赔率；当前最佳赔率为12.00，由此产生+4.58%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (19 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +4.58%E +0.382%K +0.416%G +0.019%	3.6%	2026-11-10 00:05
Fanatics🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +4.58%E +0.382%K +0.416%G +0.019%	3.6%	2026-11-09 21:40
FanDuel🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.77%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	11.60I 8.62%NM 8.23%EV +1.09%E +0.094%K +0.103%G +0.001%	4.8%	2026-11-09 21:35
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.24%E -3.05%K -53.96%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -4.14%E -0.376%K -0.414%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-11-09 23:25
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -8.49%E -0.809%K -0.894%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-10 00:15
Betr (AU)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.71%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	10.25I 9.76%NM 9.29%EV -10.67%E -1.04%K -1.15%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-09 23:14
Bet Right🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-09 23:14
888sport🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-09 23:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-09 23:10
888sport (SE)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-09 23:10
Coral🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-10 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -12.85%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-11-10 00:20
SportsBet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -17.21%E -1.81%K -2.02%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-09 21:35
Neds🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.24%E -3.05%K -53.96%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-10 00:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.24%E -3.05%K -53.96%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-11-10 00:15
Paddy Power🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-09 21:35
BoyleSports🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-09 23:10
1xBet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.15%E -3.95%K -83.01%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-11-09 23:30
picklebet_au🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.06%E -4.87%K -126.59%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -21.57%E -2.40%K -2.70%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-11-10 00:20

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
Kalshi◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14%	11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86%	1.6%	2026-11-10 01:55
Novig◎	1.07I 93.46%NM 91.22%	11.11I 9.00%NM 8.78%	2.5%	2026-11-10 02:00
Polymarket◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 82.51%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.49%	14.3%	2026-11-10 02:00

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