默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Towson Tigers v UMBC Retrievers

开赛时间： 2026-11-15 00:52 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

34 家博彩公司 (10 家纳入分析 )

83%

17%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Towson Tigers (主队)

预测 82.96%1.21公平赔率

EV -2.93%

优势 -2.51%

Kelly -17.25%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.17

博彩公司预测分布

81.70%83.07%83.02%85.41%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.111.141.131.1790.09%88.01%88.11%85.47%最小值均值中位数最大值

UMBC Retrievers (客队)

预测 17.04%5.87公平赔率

EV +10.74%

优势 +1.65%

Kelly +1.95%

增长率 +0.210%

假设最高赔率为 6.50

博彩公司预测分布

14.59%16.93%16.98%18.30%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

5.005.605.506.5020.00%17.86%18.18%15.38%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Towson Tigers (主队)：82.96%；UMBC Retrievers (客队)：17.04%。对于“UMBC Retrievers (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.87。当时有7家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.50，对应+10.74%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (34 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	利润率	更新时间
theScore Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.91%E -7.13%K -71.91%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +10.74%E +1.65%K +1.95%G +0.210%	5.5%	2026-11-15 00:35
GTbets🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV +6.48%E +1.04%K +1.23%G +0.080%	4.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
Caesars🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.42%E -4.76%K -38.72%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +2.22%E +0.370%K +0.443%G +0.010%	4.4%	2026-11-15 00:29
Betr (AU)🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +2.22%E +0.370%K +0.443%G +0.010%	5.2%	2026-11-15 00:29
Bet Right🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +2.22%E +0.370%K +0.443%G +0.010%	5.2%	2026-11-15 00:30
1xBet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -7.91%E -7.13%K -71.91%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +2.22%E +0.370%K +0.443%G +0.010%	6.8%	2026-11-15 00:29
FanDuel🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -5.42%E -4.76%K -38.72%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV +0.514%E +0.087%K +0.105%G +0.001%	4.7%	2026-11-15 00:29
picklebet_au🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.42%E -4.76%K -38.72%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -1.19%E -0.205%K -0.248%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:45
Fanatics🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.60%E -0.821%K -0.999%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-15 00:30
Bovada🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -4.60%E -0.821%K -0.999%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-15 00:30
TAB🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:29
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:44
Virgin Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
Unibet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
ATG (SE)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:45
betPARX🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.59%E -3.99%K -30.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-11-15 00:25
TABtouch🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-15 00:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-11-15 00:45
888sport🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
888sport (SE)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
Paddy Power🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:30
Betsson🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:30
NordicBet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -6.30%E -1.15%K -1.40%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-11-15 00:29
SportsBet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.25%E -5.53%K -48.08%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -8.00%E -1.48%K -1.82%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-11-15 00:30
BetRivers🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -8.00%E -1.48%K -1.82%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-11-15 00:45
Pinnacle🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 82.03%EV -2.93%E -2.51%K -17.25%G +0.000%	5.34I 18.73%NM 17.97%EV -9.03%E -1.69%K -2.08%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-11-14 21:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.68%EV -7.91%E -7.13%K -71.91%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.32%EV -9.71%E -1.83%K -2.26%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-11-15 00:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -2.93%E -2.51%K -17.25%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -10.56%E -2.01%K -2.48%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-11-14 14:14
BoyleSports🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.08%E -6.32%K -59.00%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -14.82%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-15 00:30

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司	主队	客队	利润率 ▲	更新时间
BetOpenly◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 87.86%	8.25I 12.12%NM 12.14%	-0.2%	2026-11-15 00:29
Kalshi◎	1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81%	1.2%	2026-11-15 00:35
Polymarket◎	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.57%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%	3.7%	2026-11-15 00:35
Novig◎	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.62%	6.67I 14.99%NM 14.38%	4.3%	2026-11-15 00:50
ProphetX◎	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%	5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%	5.0%	2026-11-15 00:45

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