Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays v Baltimore Orioles

Inicio: 2026-06-07 17:38 UTC

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 6–4 Baltimore Orioles

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Toronto Blue Jays (Local)

Predicción 55.65%1.80momio equitativo
EV -0.944%
Ventaja -0.530%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.66%55.67%55.70%56.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.661.721.711.7860.24%58.17%58.48%56.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Baltimore Orioles (Visitante)

Predicción 44.35%2.25momio equitativo
EV -1.99%
Ventaja -0.898%
Kelly -1.64%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.21

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.72%44.33%44.30%46.34%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.162.152.2148.78%46.35%46.51%45.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Toronto Blue Jays (Local): 55.65%; Baltimore Orioles (Visitante): 44.35%. Para Toronto Blue Jays (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 1.80. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 1.78, con un valor esperado de -0.944%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16%EV -0.944%E -0.530%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.84%EV -2.87%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.8%2026-06-07 16:09
Everygame🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 55.05%EV -0.944%E -0.530%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.95%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.1%2026-06-07 16:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -0.944%E -0.530%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-07 16:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.94%EV -0.944%E -0.530%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.06%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.3%2026-06-07 16:09
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.30%EV -1.50%E -0.848%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.70%EV -2.87%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.2%2026-06-07 13:58
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.19%EV -1.50%E -0.848%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.4%2026-06-07 16:19
Fliff🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -1.50%E -0.848%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -9.08%E -4.43%K -8.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 17:00
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -2.06%E -1.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -1.99%E -0.898%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.1%2026-06-07 17:00
BetAnything🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.44%EV -2.06%E -1.17%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.56%EV -2.87%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.5%2026-06-07 17:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -2.61%E -1.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-07 17:29
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -2.61%E -1.49%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-07 14:09
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.20%E -1.95%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-07 11:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-06 19:29
Caesars🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-07 15:49
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-07 15:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-07 01:09
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.98%EV -3.73%E -2.15%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.02%EV -2.43%E -1.10%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.3%2026-06-07 16:07
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.75%EV -3.73%E -2.15%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.25%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-07 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.73%E -2.15%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-07 16:09
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.73%E -2.15%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-07 15:59
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.73%E -2.15%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.86%E -3.27%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-06 20:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-06-07 16:08
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 15:59
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 15:59
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 13:59
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:10
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.98%E -2.82%K -5.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 14:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.86%E -3.27%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-07 06:19
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.43%E -1.10%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-07 16:09
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.43%E -1.10%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-07 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-07 17:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-07 17:29
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 17:19
888sport🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 05:19
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 05:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 05:19
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 16:09
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-07 12:49
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.84%E -2.83%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.09%E -2.38%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-07 11:19
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 15:59
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.19%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.81%EV -3.32%E -1.52%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-07 17:29
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 17:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 17:29
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.76%E -1.73%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-07 17:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 15:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.40%E -3.17%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-07 12:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.95%E -3.52%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-07 17:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.51%E -3.87%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.86%E -3.27%K -6.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-07 15:59
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-07 15:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-07 16:29
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.65%E -2.16%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-07 15:59
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.83%EV -5.09%E -2.38%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-07 17:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.73%EV -7.62%E -4.59%K -11.55%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.27%EV -7.31%E -3.50%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-06-07 17:08
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
ProphetX1.81I 55.25%NM 55.20%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.80%0.1%2026-06-07 17:20
Novig1.80I 55.56%NM 55.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.67%0.4%2026-06-07 17:30
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-06-07 17:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-06-07 17:29
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-06-07 17:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%0.8%2026-06-07 17:30
Kalshi1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-06-07 04:29
Polymarket1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-06-07 16:40
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36%1.5%2026-06-07 17:10
BetOpenly1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-06-07 17:19