Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pittsburgh Pirates v Atlanta Braves

Inicio: 2026-07-08 22:41 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Pirates 0–3 Atlanta Braves

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

63 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pittsburgh Pirates (Local)

Predicción 52.55%1.90momio equitativo
EV -1.73%
Ventaja -0.926%
Kelly -1.99%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.59%52.58%52.63%53.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.751.821.821.8757.14%55.08%54.95%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atlanta Braves (Visitante)

Predicción 47.45%2.11momio equitativo
EV +0.120%
Ventaja +0.057%
Kelly +0.108%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.45%47.42%47.37%48.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.942.012.002.1151.55%49.68%50.00%47.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pittsburgh Pirates (Local): 52.55%; Atlanta Braves (Visitante): 47.45%. Para Atlanta Braves (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.107. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.110, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.120%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
GTbets🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.55%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 46.45%EV +0.120%E +0.057%K +0.108%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-08 22:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -0.354%E -0.169%K -0.322%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 22:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -0.354%E -0.169%K -0.322%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Everygame🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 53.44%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.56%EV -0.354%E -0.169%K -0.322%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 22:19
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.05%EV -2.78%E -1.50%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 46.95%EV -0.829%E -0.396%K -0.760%G +0.000%1.9%2026-07-08 22:30
BetUS🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -2.78%E -1.50%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -1.30%E -0.627%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.1%2026-07-08 22:29
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 52.42%EV -1.73%E -0.926%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.58%EV -2.25%E -1.09%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-08 21:25
BetAnything🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.55%EV -2.26%E -1.21%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.45%EV -2.25%E -1.09%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-08 21:25
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.84%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.16%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-08 22:39
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:39
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.46%E -3.63%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 22:35
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.46%E -3.63%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-08 22:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%EV -2.78%E -1.50%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%EV -3.20%E -1.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-08 22:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.71%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.29%EV -3.20%E -1.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.7%2026-07-08 22:39
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.89%E -2.70%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.20%E -1.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-08 22:35
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 12:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 22:24
DraftKings🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -4.89%E -2.70%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-08 22:35
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-08 22:40
NordicBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.94%E -3.32%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 22:35
Betsson🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.94%E -3.32%K -7.51%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 22:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -4.62%E -2.30%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-08 22:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -2.78%E -1.50%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-08 21:40
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 00:15
Bet Right🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 21:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-07 19:40
Caesars🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 22:39
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 12:15
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:55
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:54
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:55
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-08 20:55
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 00:40
Dabble (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-08 21:50
SportsBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.89%E -2.70%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 12:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 18:15
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 18:20
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-07 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 21:34
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 22:39
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.10%E -2.55%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-08 22:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -5.57%E -2.80%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-08 21:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.94%E -3.32%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -5.57%E -2.80%K -5.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-08 22:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.05%E -3.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 20:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -6.05%E -3.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-08 20:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -6.46%E -3.63%K -8.28%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -6.05%E -3.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-08 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -6.52%E -3.31%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 20:54
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -4.36%E -2.40%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -6.52%E -3.31%K -6.72%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-08 20:55
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -3.83%E -2.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-08 21:25
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 20:15
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 22:35
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.41%E -3.01%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-08 22:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.04%E -4.59%K -10.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-08 22:40
Grosvenor🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.01%EV -5.94%E -3.32%K -7.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.99%EV -7.95%E -4.10%K -8.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-08 20:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.29%EV -6.99%E -3.95%K -9.07%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.71%EV -7.95%E -4.10%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-08 22:12
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.89I 52.91%NM 53.22%2.15I 46.51%NM 46.78%-0.6%2026-07-08 22:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-08 22:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-08 22:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-07-08 22:40
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24%0.8%2026-07-08 22:40
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-08 21:30
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-08 21:25
ProphetX1.85I 54.05%NM 53.40%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.60%1.2%2026-07-08 22:40
Novig1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%2.1%2026-07-08 22:40
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 52.31%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.69%2.8%2026-07-08 22:40