Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Tampa Bay Rays

2026-09-25 22:41 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

61 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 58.95%1.70momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -1.30%
Kelly -3.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.69%58.92%59.03%60.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.621.621.6664.52%61.83%61.73%60.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante)

Predicción 41.05%2.44momio equitativo
EV -0.649%
Ventaja -0.268%
Kelly -0.457%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.75%41.08%40.97%42.31%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.322.322.4246.51%43.02%43.10%41.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 58.95%; Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante): 41.05%. Para Tampa Bay Rays (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.44. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.42, con un valor esperado de -0.649%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.01%EV -2.15%E -1.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -1.88%E -0.787%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-25 02:18
GTbets🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.46%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.54%EV -0.649%E -0.268%K -0.457%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-25 00:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.47%E -0.612%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-25 00:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.26%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.74%EV -1.47%E -0.612%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.3%2026-09-25 00:35
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -1.88%E -0.787%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.4%2026-09-25 01:30
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-25 00:40
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-24 19:05
Caesars🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-24 20:52
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -5.16%E -2.24%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-25 01:55
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 21:04
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.74%E -1.66%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 22:35
Neds🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 00:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.33%E -2.03%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 00:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -3.92%E -2.40%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-24 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.92%E -2.40%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-24 23:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-24 21:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.11%E -1.32%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 18:50
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 02:35
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 23:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 23:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 23:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-24 23:50
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:25
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.93%E -1.68%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-25 02:09
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-24 19:45
888sport🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 19:45
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 22:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 19:44
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 18:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 19:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 19:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 19:45
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 22:20
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 22:45
LeoVegas🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 23:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.51%E -2.78%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 02:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:25
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -2.70%E -1.14%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 00:25
Fanatics🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-25 00:00
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.52%E -1.50%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-24 23:50
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 00:55
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-25 00:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 02:05
ReBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 00:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.10%E -3.17%K -8.36%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.40%E -2.81%K -5.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 23:58
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -5.69%E -3.55%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -4.34%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 23:50
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.69%E -3.55%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 23:58
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.69%E -3.55%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 23:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.69%E -3.55%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.58%E -2.42%K -4.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 00:00
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.28%E -3.95%K -10.64%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 18:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.87%E -4.35%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -6.87%E -4.35%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -4.75%E -2.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 23:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -6.87%E -4.35%K -11.84%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -9.68%E -4.40%K -8.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-25 00:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -7.46%E -4.75%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -2.29%E -0.963%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 18:49
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -8.63%E -5.57%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -7.63%E -3.39%K -6.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-24 23:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -8.63%E -5.57%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -11.73%E -5.46%K -10.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-24 23:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-09-25 02:35
Polymarket◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-25 02:25
Novig◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-09-25 02:40
ProphetX◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.6%2026-09-25 02:35
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%10.0%2026-09-25 00:00
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 58.45%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%10.4%2026-09-25 01:30