Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies v Milwaukee Brewers

2026-09-24 22:06 UTC — MLB

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Philadelphia Phillies (Local)

Predicción 51.96%1.92momio equitativo
EV -1.28%
Ventaja -0.672%
Kelly -1.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.00%51.89%51.96%52.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.831.831.9057.47%54.53%54.64%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante)

Predicción 48.04%2.08momio equitativo
EV -0.076%
Ventaja -0.037%
Kelly -0.071%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.07%48.11%48.04%50.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.871.981.982.0853.48%50.58%50.51%48.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Philadelphia Phillies (Local): 51.96%; Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante): 48.04%. Para Milwaukee Brewers (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.082. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.080, con un valor esperado de -0.076%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.28%E -0.672%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.72%E -4.59%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 02:10
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%EV -1.80%E -0.950%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%EV -2.00%E -0.979%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.9%2026-09-24 04:35
TAB🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -2.84%E -1.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.32%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-24 04:10
betfred_uk🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.84%E -1.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-24 04:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -2.84%E -1.52%K -3.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -8.72%E -4.59%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 07:20
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%EV -0.076%E -0.037%K -0.071%G +0.000%2.1%2026-09-24 04:23
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 02:10
Caesars🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 02:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 04:00
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-24 04:00
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 04:00
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.84%E -2.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.84%E -2.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 04:00
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.84%E -2.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 04:05
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 06:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-24 07:15
BetAnything🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%EV -1.04%E -0.503%K -0.978%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-24 07:09
Bovada🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -4.40%E -2.21%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 02:35
Bet Right🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-24 02:44
DraftKings🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.83%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.17%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-24 04:40
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -5.84%E -2.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-24 02:10
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 04:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 02:15
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 02:25
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 02:45
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 03:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-24 06:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 02:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 02:45
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 07:15
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 07:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 04:15
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 04:40
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 03:05
ReBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 02:45
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.91%E -2.69%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-24 03:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -5.43%E -2.99%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -4.88%E -2.46%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 02:45
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -5.43%E -2.99%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -5.36%E -2.72%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-24 03:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.43%E -2.99%K -6.63%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.15%EV -5.84%E -2.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-24 02:39
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 02:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 02:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 02:45
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.92%E -1.96%K -3.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 02:45
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-24 02:44
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.47%E -3.60%K -8.09%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.32%E -3.24%K -6.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-24 02:43
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%EV -7.76%E -4.04%K -8.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-24 02:45
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.17%EV -8.55%E -4.86%K -11.25%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.83%EV -7.76%E -4.04%K -8.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-24 03:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.80%EV -9.59%E -5.51%K -12.96%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.20%EV -10.16%E -5.44%K -11.68%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-24 02:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
BetOpenly1.93I 51.81%NM 51.75%2.07I 48.31%NM 48.25%0.1%2026-09-24 07:20
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-09-24 02:20
Polymarket1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-09-24 07:45
ProphetX1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-09-24 07:45
Novig1.90I 52.63%NM 51.53%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.47%2.1%2026-09-24 07:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%2.7%2026-09-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%2.7%2026-09-24 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%2.7%2026-09-24 07:25
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 51.79%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.21%2.7%2026-09-24 07:30
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 51.69%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.31%4.0%2026-09-24 07:45